The Billy Plan Today - 27 Oct. 2020 - Pull up the bridge

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Drawbridge down - 27 oct



Here's a quick summary of the status of the pandemic this 27 October, 2020.



The World

The trend in Daily Cases looks like this.


JH CSSE - 27 October, 2020 - Daily Cases




The current trend in the number of those still Actively iLL with this virus in the World looks like this.


Actively ill in our world - 27 October


On October 21, there were 11.8 million individuals ill with COVID-19. Six days later, there are 13.4 million.




Cas totaux confirmés - 27 oct


On 17 October, there were a Total of 202152 SARS-CoV-2 positive cases in all of Belgium.

Ten days later, 333718, or 131566 additional cases. That's a 65.08% increase over 10 days, or 6.5% per day.


If one takes the number of Belgians who have recovered from this illness (23 256) and divides that figure by the number still actively ill (299 563), that equals 0.078. Or, much less than 1 person recovered for each person still actively ill. If you prefer the corollary, for each person who has recovered from COVID-19, there are 13 individuals who are still sick with this today in Belgium.


This is being written on a Tuesday. To get a sense of present growth rate, here are all the previous Tuesdays since the pandemic arrived in Belgium, along with today's value :


Tous les mardis AVEC - 27 oct

The previous mean (not shown) was 752 new cases announced on Tuesdays. Today's result drove that average to over 1000 cases on Tuesdays.


Today's result of 12687 new cases is 17 times that previous average value.



Regionally in Belgium

Distribution (%) des cas par régions - 27 oct



This distribution of the new cases announced each day since June 24th, instructs that today, the Walloon region of the country (in blue) has the greatest number (47% of all new cases announced for Belgium this day). This share of cases has been increasing and continues to do so.



LOCALLY in Belgium

Here are 14 cities nearby where we live in the Belgian Ardennes.

While  one city (Chaudfontaine, a tourist attraction with Casinos) outnumbers the others, all are trending upwards exponentially.

This finding began in late September and has continued.

14 villes locales - 27 oct



Here are the four closest cities. The smooth upwards trend is evident for all.


Malmedy, SPa, Stavelot, Trois-Ponts - 27 oct


Here, easier to see, are 5 neighboring cities over the past 10 days. The rates of increase vary slightly from one town to the next but the trend is unmistakable. 



M, Sp, St, Stou, T-P - 10 derniers jours - 27 oct



And here are cases per 1000 inhabitants in Stavelot, our present focus.


Stavelot - Cases per thousand inhabitants - 27 October




If one observes from where one stands in Stavelot, our town is presently involved in the same exponential growth of positive cases of the SARS-CoV-2 virus as seen in: nearby cities, the Wallon Region of Belgium, the entire country, and the world. The recent upsurge is global.


Breaking the chain of transmission of this viral illness requires local control first, essentially one person at a time. 


If that is still possible for Stavelot, it is now time to separate our town from all sources external to the city that might be carrying the virus. Such contacts serve as further sources of contamination and probable illness of varying severities.




The above numbers defining the changing level of viral infestation in Stavelot, define the following relationship: As time passes, positive cases now increase very quickly.


Stavelot Growth rate - 27 October



If nothing changes, the probable outcome looks like this :


Stavelot - Predicted cases and Population (7205) - prediction, Oct 27



So in about one month, the entire population of Stavelot will have acquired the SARS-CoV-2 virus.


Drawbridge going up - 27 oct


It is now time to pull up the drawbridge.



This is an essential step in the implementation of The Billy Plan.


While glancing at times towards the World, the Country, other Regions, and nearby Towns may be informative,  unfortunately they must  be viewed now as potential, even probable sources of infection.


Let me be clear.

Those from nearby towns, other regions and countries are not the enemy.

They are laboring under the same burden as all of those who inhabit Stavelot.

They are not the enemy. The enemy is the virus that they may be potentially carrying.



Drawbridge up - 27 oct


It is now time to pull up the drawbridge.


Entrances to the city are sealed each year during the Laetare weekend. Stavelot knows how to do this.


The reason for doing this now, is much more important than amusement, rejoicing in the return of Spring, and just generally having fun.


Sealing the city now, may make it possible that such celebration will one day return.



It is now time to pull up the drawbridge.



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