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The Billy Plan Today - 1 Nov., 2020 - All Saints Day (La Toussaint)

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The WORLD

The first graphic that appears in this gallery, has a huge amount of numbers on it.

Others are not as crowded, and you can chose to ignore it.

 

Or come back to see the useful comparisons that it contains.

 

Numbers in pink are the situation as it was on February 27.

In yellow, today's values. In light blue, the levels of change between the two dates.

One gets a sense of the magnitude of what has transpired.

But also and most importantly, one can identify that positive trends in deaths and recovery from illness are definitely present. Even still today when case numbers are rising.

 

Click on any image to stop the slide show if you find it annoying.

 

Interpretation:

  • 0.6% of the world's population is now counted as a positive COVID-19 case. Even if that estimate is off by a factor of 10, most of the world is not infected. That's reassuring. But it underscores that even such a small percentage can create the tragic consequences that are being lived throughout the world. It also puts a perspective on "herd immunity" in the absence of a vaccine. On February 27, that figure was 0.00108%.
  • There are probably 10 times more infected individuals worldwide, than these case numbers capture.
  • The general trend is one of a continuing increase in Daily Cases at this time.
  • Today's decrease in those Actively iLL with COVID-19 may be an effect of day of the week (reported cases are ususally lower on Sundays).
  • The ratio of Recovered to Actively iLL in the world increased to 2.194 from 2.004 : 1 yesterday.
  • That allows one to underscore that for each person still ill, two have recovered.
  • World CFR is 24% lower today, than it was on February 27.

 

BELGIUM - Cases

 

Interpretation:

  • reported cases increased 4.1% since yesterday
  • Unlike that estimate for the world of 0.6% of the population being a positive case of COVID-19, in Belgium, 3.7% of the population is now a reported positive case.
  • 53% of new cases are in Wallonia; 11% in Brussels; 35% in Flanders. When corrected for population, Wallonia is in a strong and undesired first place.
  • 17 689 new cases per day on average
  • cases per million and the ratio of cases to population distribution in the 3 regions of the country, these corrections again place the Walloon region ahead of the other two.

 

Recall that in interpreting numbers of cases reported each day, being eager to find increases and decreases in these numbers, there is a very significant effect of Day of the Week. That is not how the virus works. It's how the system works. It's how the system is set up for better or worse, and at times mostly the latter.

 

Cas Totaux par Jour de Semaine - 1 nov

 

Don't forget that reality as you look at the results on any given day. It's too easy each Tuesday, (or Friday), to get the wrong impression.

 

 

BELGIUM - Deaths

Interpretation:

  • Deaths from COVID-19 in Belgium are increasing at present
  • when compared by region, recent deaths are highest in Wallonia
  • reported deaths vary by day of the week, with Wednesday being the highest and statistically distinct from others. Again, thiis is not a viral effect but a result of how the medical system is set up and works.
  • the Case Fatality Ratio (Taux de Mortalité) continues to diminish in both the world (2.59%) and in Belgium (2.71%).  There continues to be a strong correlation between the two rates of death from cases of COVID-19. (Pearson r = 0.99412). It is unlikely that eveywhere in the world, including Belgium, improvements in patient care were made at exactly the same time to have created this very smooth reduction in mortality from COVID-19. Something else is going on. This variable has a numerator (deaths) and a denominator (cases). It may be true that cases worldwide are increasing so fast, that the small number of fatal cases have less statistical presence. It's not just better care.

 

 

Tomorrow, the latest series of closures and near lockdown announced on Friday will go into effect.

The policy decisions are guided closely by hospitalization data. Reported as 7 day averages, of data that is slow to emerge and be consolidated, results that emerge are problematic by if nothing else, their tardiness. As detailed below, that may place the country in a position of great delay when responding to actual changes in infection. Many other EUropean countries mirror the current rise in cases in Belgium.

I can't speak to their methods.

 

14 LOCAL CITIES

 

All cities in Walloon region (Rapport : Villes en Région Wallonne, triées par nombre de cas)

 

All cities in Liège Province (Rapport : Villes de la Province de Liège, triées par nombre de cas)

 

Interpretation:

  • On this day, the 14 local cities we have been following evidence a 5.72% increase in total cases per day. This increase varies from 1.2% to 10.8%, but continues to rise in all cities.
  • This represents 8 676 total cases for these neighboring cities in the Province of Liège, for an average of 620 cases per city.

 

 

Stavelot - Cas par mille habitants - 1 nov

Interpretation for Stavelot:

  • Total cases today: 461, population 7250, = 64 Total cases per 1000 inhabitants, as shown above.
  • 2.4 total cases per 1000 inhabitants on April 20. 
  • 8.2 total cases per 1000 inhabitants on October 8.

 

Using values from the graph, per 1000 inhabitants :

 

Total cases / 1000 Date

Time to double (days)

8 October 8  
16 October 14 6 days
32 October 21.5 7.5 days
64 November 1 10.5 days

 

This quick look suggests that the time to double number of cases is increasing. So rate of increase is diminishing.

 

 

Predicted Total Cases in Stavelot. Comparing Linear and Exponential Models to Actual Cases.

 

 

Modèles linéaire et exponentiel - 1 nov

 

 

How accurate have these predictions been so far?

 

Error of estimate and correction for % error - 1 nov

 

Not too bad at all.

 

"All models are wrong, but some are useful."

 

 

Interpretation:

  • At present, both a linear and an exponential relationship of Total cases for Stavelot as days pass, display about the same error rate for their estimates: about 3% to 6%. This was more fully explained at the end of our note yesterday.
  • Cases in Stavelot continue to increase each day recently.
  • The exponential model, of course, generates predicted values that are much more concerning if they remain on target.
  • Any such predictions depend on having no change in the variables that determined them. Of course, finding a way to intervene that reduces these increases is desireable. That is the motivation behind the suggestions incorporated in the Billy Plan.
  • Even if the linear model proves to be more accurate than the exponential, on December 6 it predictes a total of 1062 cases in Stavelot. That's 14.75% of the population. While better than the 7720 total cases predicted by the exponential model for the same day, Its still a large number.
  • Recall that actual persons harboring infection with this virus, are 8 to 12 times more numerous than these counts of positive cases. That yields values far in excess of the actual population, suggesting all inhabitants will become infected. That would be less worrisome if 15% were not projected to become severely ill. Clearly, the majority should have a less than severe illness. But who wants any illness?
  • All steps should be taken now with haste, to break the chain of transmission of this virus in Stavelot.
  • What if time proves that all these essential steps were unnecessary and cases of COVID-19 decline on their own? All the better. What assures that positive outcome today? Nothing.

 

"Why no mention of hospitalization rates in our region?"

  • Information on hospitalizations surfaces with a significant delay. 
  • Most who are hospitalized, and especially those transferred to Intensive Care, are faced with hospitalizations of about a month. The care process itself, introduces many variables that affect outcome. It takes a while to unravel that in grouping discharged patient data for reporting.
  • So to focus on hospitalization numbers is almost like focusing on the past. It doesn't help to make wise decisions in a timely fashion. 
  • Case numbers have their delay as well, given current performance of the extant testing system.
  • Many if not most who become ill, have a presymptomatic period in which they are potentially transmitting the virus to contacts. Results of testing in Belgium are in general, still taking too long to appear.
  • So yes, even case reports have an important delay in their presentation of the reality of the infectious conditions in the population today.
  • At present, there are no better data than case numbers to guide health practice and policy.
  • Basing practice and policy on information coming eventually out of hospitalization numbers, is to sigificantly reduce the effectiveness and timeliness of appropriate response to actual, ongoing infections.
  • Speed is of the essence. Being right with each decision, takes more information and more time than we have today.
  • Aim to be right most of the time. But fix on speed to implement now what may make a difference. The virus is well ahead in this race. As people come indoors more during cool and cold weather, it is well prepared to take advantage of closer contacts in  the home. That has already begun.

 

-----------

 

 

Voici ma lettre à la DEFENSE >>>>>>>>>

 

Hier, 31 Octobre >>>>>>>>>>

 

<<<<<<< The Biily Plan explained: the Overview

 

<<<<<<< The Billy Plan - Index to related articles

 

 

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01/11/2020
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