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COVID-19 cases in Belgium this day, March 11

A link to Belgian Public Health Department (in French, Flemish, but also English)

Their result today ...

 

47 Nouvelles infections COVID-19 11 Mars 2020 (English)

 

First mortalities ...

How Public Health presents the bad news (in French):

 

Premier Décès - 11Mars 2020

And 5 hours later ...

Deux décès en plus 11 mars 2020

People are getting the message.

This year's Laetare weekend, parades, etc. was just officially cancelled.

Here's to more similar good decisions ...

 

 

My additions:

This little Map, of the three regional areas. Click on an icon and a window will appear to give details of case data. The locations here are Flanders, Brussels and Wallonia, but nothing more precise.


Regional distribution:

follows population lines, but a bit more in Flanders, northwestern Belgium ...

Distribution

Summary

 

(here with a lot of important data missing, becasue no longer shared by FPS Public Health).

 

Mostly useful for following total tests and calculating a potive rate... Shame about the missing info.

Résumé des tests - 11 Mar, 2020

 

 

New positive cases announced by date, looks like this ...

Wonder what happened to explain this look ? ...

Nouveau cas par jour - 11 mar

 

Total number of cases announced in Belgium by date ...

Total des Cas Conformés 11 Mar 2020

Placing this in light of worldwide changes in Active Cases which look like this today...

 

Active Cases March 11, 2020

 

Q: "Is this increase in COVID-19 cases in Belgium progressing linearly or exponentially?"

"This is an important question ..."

 

In Belgium ...

(click to enlarge this)

Belgium 11 March - Linear not exponential increases in Cases Confirmed

 

Reply :

It would seem that the correct answer is: linear.

 

  • On the left the data of the FPS Public Health.
  • In the middle the linear relation: day of observation (we are the 11th), and the current cases 314, and those predicted: 297. An error of estimation of -5.4%. A level of correlation, R² = 0.95.
  • On the right, testing a relation proposed to be exponential: R² = 0.787 Predicted case for this day, 642. Error of estimation 104.5%.

 

So, IF   Belgium is going to experience an increase in cases in a geometric way one day, and we hope not, we are not there yet on March 11.

 

Being able to conclude that this is important, reassuring, needs a follow-up tomorrow to see if this comforting linear relationship still holds, ... but it remains very positive today.

 

The validity of this conclusion depends:

  • On a  close relationship between the current actual  cases in the street (and home, and at the store) and the number of positive tests.
  • When SPF Public Health presents "47 new COVID-19 infections", this could be a bit misleading. This leads us to think: "Well, it's an increase, but not much compared to Italy for example." I don't think they are trying to mislead. I think it would be better to report: "47 new positive tests", and to stop there.
  • It also depends on the results presented being complete. Certain variables (illness severity, location of a case) have recently dropped out of the picture.

 

The Map

That means that my map below of these cases, though I found it rather cool, is no longer accurate.

 

 

 

You saw my fix for that, higher up on this page. Regional data only.

 

 

TESTS

The subject of the tests is interesting in itself.

But what directs the public health system of any country that does these tests, is anything but consistent and clear at the moment.

 

Some options we hear voiced around us ...

  • "I'm not feeling well. I'm going to ask my doctor for a prescription to take this COVID-19 test."
  • Or: "I feel fine but I'm afraid of being a carrier without any symptoms. I will ask my doctor for a prescription to take this COVID-19 test."

 

These two motivating elements can be justified. Is this still what has led to tests in other countries? Apparently not. Take a look below.

 

Let's compare Belgium's results so far with those of other countries.

 

While you look at these actual results, be thinking:

  • "There seem to be differences in the use of the tests in these results. Yes, there are differences."
  • And "why would it be?"

 

Tests performed per Mill Inhab - Mar 11, 2020

 

Many sources have presented such results, comparing one country with others.

 

Does that tell us enough about how to improve results? Is it just a question of "more or fewer tests?"

I think not. Other data exist that might help put this in perspective. Let's look.

 

Tests performed Confirmed Case - Mar 11, 2020

 

Tests performed per Death - Mar 11, 2020

 

 

Tests performed per Recovered Case - Mar 11, 2020

 

Tests performed per Active Case - Mar 11, 2020

 

Do not come to me for a clear answer. I do not have any.

But clearly these more detailed results require interpretation, and if possible, defining a cohesive whole about managing testing for COVID-19.

 

The issue of testing and managing it is certainly affected by something that we haven't measured.

But maybe the above results measure exactly that: human psychology.

 

Italy has the highest value above for number of tests per million inhabitants. But almost no tests by number of deaths.

 

Does this mean that they started too late in Italy, but have developed a serious motivation to test? Maybe to fix the error? Maybe to catch up? Maybe to look better? Those are motivations driven by human psychology. Not just economics and politics science.

 

It is clear that the levels of anxiety and panic probably differ from country to country. This most certainly becomes a driver for "the Test." But who is the source of this anxiety, panic and other emotional responses? Only the person? COVID-19 remains pretty silent during its advance. Except for the sound of a sneeze. The media?

 

If everyone gives up and chooses to embark on a major depressive episode in a certain country, will there be fewer tests? Or more? This reasoning may sound silly, but it probably isn't. The doctors who order the test also have their emotions, and that translates into a way of acting. I saw that during about 30 years of training and practice.

 

The results for implementation of the test in  Belgium today ... Are they good?

"How would you know ?"

 

If one thing is certain when comparing these results by country, we may not yet have reached a useful and effective balance in managing COVID-19 tests. Probably it's in evolution and will appear.

Soon I hope.

 

Don't hesitate to share your answers and insights here

(in a comment below for members), or by email at info@coronastavelot.com

Members her are few, but I've learned over the years that that is a typical response in Belgium to blogs. Maybe there'a a test for that too.

 

 

>>>>>> to world data for today, March 11.

 

 

<<<<<<<  Home

 

 

 



11/03/2020
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