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21/07/2020
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Valeur de Rt ou Ro par pays du monde (World Ro values) - Interactive

From Koema ... click on image below then follow linked images ...

 

COVID-19 Reproduction Rates Signal Further Global Spread

 

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09/07/2020
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7 July at CoronaStavelot.com

Never miss an opportunity to find joy.

 

 

Trends - Case Fatality Ratio - July 7, 2020

The death rate (or Case Fatality Rate to sound less stark) continues to trend downwards in our world.

That's good.

Breathe in; hold; breathe out; hold. Repeat x 3.

 

 

 

World R to A ratio - July 7, 2020

 

Those in our world who have had this viral illness and recovered from it, now outnumber those who are still actively ill with COVID-19. 

That's good.

Breathe in; hold; breathe out; hold. Repeat x 3.

 

 

 

 

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07/07/2020
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From divided countries to a united world.

From divided countries to a united world.

A difficult lesson to learn.


Petty distinctions will be our extinction.


From the beginning of the pandemic, Belgium’s less than stellar results have been presented divided into 3. Just as the country is divided into 3 for almost everything. It just can’t seem to get over that. Just can't swallow hard and get that lump out of its throat.


Stay rigid and die. Find new flexibility and live.


Open your eyes. But first close them, and open your mind.


This should not be the COVID-19 Olympic Games. 
With such an approach, your country, and perhaps you, have it all wrong.
This is not a competition like pole vaulting. What works better? A fiberglass or a steel pole?

 

"Let's see... What works better? Herd immunity, or masks and isolation?"

 

What has worked better for us? For all the little I, me, mine absurd lives lived in OUR country. What works best to save US?

 

Put out the fires.

Put out the fires where they arise. Get a mental image of huge planes dumping water on those fires. And there, even an example of right action at a distance. Not flying so low as to «catch» the fire.


If we can transport tanks into a region in less than 24 hours, how about transporting ventilators? And masks? And PPE outfits for those on the front lines? And food? And vaccines that exist already for other illnesses that are today, already raising their ugly heads once again.


In America, «Black Lives Matter.» 


So rallied again around a touching cry, people are shamelessly spreading the virus.

Deploring police brutality.
Getting into election fever because November is not far off.
What nice escapes from the present pressing reality. Very moving.


«This virus stuff has me and my neighbors just a little scared. We’re already fed up with it. Hey here’s an idea... Let's protest!»


Let’s just forget it and drudge up all the easily found problems in our country that we haven’t been able to solve for years, if not hundreds of years. Let’s knock the heads off statues of Confederate generals and Belgian Kings who were into slavery. Let’s spend days discussing how to increase a nation’s level of sensitivity to its past sins. Let's form clubs to ask forgiveness for our individual national sins.


Let’s let economc inequalities between social groups quickly become front page news once again.

Let's find economists, and bankers, and sociologists and anyone else who wants to, give us the truth on this. And in a timely fashion.

Watch a few TED talks and learn something to boost your intellect above your neighbor’s.


Anything, just anything besides SARS-CoV-2.

Please.

 


Did you ever know anyone who told Nigger Jokes? Did you ever tell Nigger Jokes? Many of my black friends in the not too distant past, told some pretty good Nigger Jokes.
 

My father, with others like himself, risked his life repeatedly from June 1944 to May 1945 to save Belgium and other countries. They told Nigger Jokes. And jokes about the Irish and Italians and Jews. How about Flemish Jokes about Walloons? How about expressions like «Ils sont les cultivateurs, et nous sommes les cultivés.» («They are the farmers and we are the educated ones.»). But my father, right up to the day of his death, never got to a level of respect and compassion for others like Mahatma Gandhi or the Dalai Lama have. But in his day, when called, he did come together with others to save lives. And faced with that task, they got the job done.

And having witnessed to what he carried until his death in his heart about that effort in '44, I'm sure that if he was still alive, at any age, he would have volunteered again.

I'll ease up a bit here on the melodrama. But it's true.

 

When discussing in the past, problems plagueing American society, my Blck friends used to say: "Oh, now I get it. It's the Indians!" Of course. It was the American Indians, even before they became American, who were the damn problem all along.


What’s wrong with us today?


Human nature has always had its petty and disgusting aspects. Chimpanzees have the same problem when, up in a tree, they pee on other monkeys below. No respect at all for other species. Just seems to be about competing for food and mates I guess. 


If we are evolving, perhaps not fast enough. Perhaps not far enough. But this brain that I’ve got today, is the only one I’ll ever have. So I’d better use it to get my act together before I’m gone. Before we’re all gone.


Go ahead. Solve all those recurring problems once again, like each country did in the past. Focus. Spend time on that so worthwhile task. Then wait 1 or 2 generations to begin smelling the foul odors of social failure once again.

 

In the meantime, offended or not by a racial slur this day, people are dying.

They do not die because they have been offended or disrespected.

They die because we have increasingly, country by country, accepted defeat.

There is no other reason.


And to whom did we lose this war?
To ourselves. The enemy won. And it is us.


We are still playing Olympic Games and seeing who has the most deaths today.

Quite happily discovered, if Johns Hopkins CSSE can show us it’s not us. How comforting.


«He who fights and runs away, will live to fight another day.» An expression from WW-II.


And that is true.

 

But now, it is time to all get on the same side of the artillery.

The distractions must come to an end. Want to make the differences between a white man and a black or yellow disappear? Climb into the trenches together. Look across the expanses of our world at an invisible enemy who, at present, still has the upper hand.

 

Colors will quickly blend into one. Or more accurately, into no color at all. Just hearts all beating about 72 times a minute, and respirations of 14 per minute. And respect when looking into another set of eyes, without having to turn our gaze shamefully aside.


In 1000 years in a school somewhere: «And what happened to that civilization? They seemed so powerful for a while. Why did they disappear?» 


We are writing our terms of extinction.
Decide today, what you would like written on your tombstone.

In heiroglyphs, cuneiform, or Khmer abugida script from Ankor. You decide.

Perhaps write it in English.

Experts in a 1000 years will work to descipher exactly who you were. What you wanted out of life. And what you gave to it. 


Blacks and whites in America will finally find union through shared COVID-19 death. In fact today, they already are. Quiet moments of respect shared next to an ICU bed. Silently, except for the noise of a ventilator blowing 18 times a minute. Silently, because tears make no noise when they fall.

Is that what must come to be?


This thing is horribly transmissible.

 

If you can’t quite swing it to understand IFR’s above or below 1.0%, and statements like «... 100 times more transmissible than the seasonal flu.»  It’s Tony Fauci’s «worst nightmare.»  And if you don't yet know who Anthony Fauci is, understand that it is also still this day, your worst nightmare.


The blind are leading the blind.

 

All the specialists and other «-ists» are telling us to open a window or three, 10 or 12 times an hour to blow through the microdroplets. They are keeping their most important window shut. That is the window that provides a view on the world. Wasting their education.Wasting everyone’s time. Tweeting up a useless and absurd storm of words, and numbers, and recommendations, and provocative statements.

 

Each telling his or her government, exactly what that government wants to hear. They have heard and quickly learned to respect, their leaders instruction:

 

"When I want your opinion, I'll give it to you!"

Else, be quiet and do your work as I see fit."

 

Useless so far. Useless forever if the blind keep leading the blind. The "-ists" who are honest admit, that just like all of us, they are still learning the behavior of this "novel" coronavirus. Guys like Tony Fauci.

 

Honest ones accept that they are today, more student than teacher. Ignorance prompts shame and a desire to hide. And that prompts the dishonesty of so many. Just not helpful. Frankly, disgusting.

 

 

Blind Leading the Blind - Peter Breughel the Elder (a Belgian)

 

The Blind Leading the Blind - Peter Breughel the Elder - dated 1568

 

Now that, was a Belgian...

 

But of course today, what could such a tiny contry possibly contribute to such a global approach?

With such a high population density, no wonder the virus caused so many deaths.

Why not turn to larger countries like the United States of America or Russia?

All nonsense.

All excuses still in common use today.

 

 

Do you live in Belgium? 

Be happy that Belgium is doing so much better. «It’s almost over here.»

 

Décès attribués au COVID-19 en Belgique - 11 juin 2020

Just a little unfortunate tail at the end, peeing itself away.

And yet, on June 10th in Belgium, the number of new cases reported was 5 times the value reported on March 10 when Belgians were paralyzed with fear and anxiety. Now things are better.

 

Everyone here is suffering from shell shock. Post Traumatic Shock Disorder (PTSD) in the making.

 

In September 1944 in Belgium,

 

the Nazi hoard cried as they departed: "Ich komme wieder."

«I’ll be back.»


They did not forget to keep that promise. And though eventually that hoard was overcome, the devastation during the Battle of the Bulge was terrible. How did it end? With the Belgian Army becoming victorious? No. Belgium no longer had an army. It had lasted at the beginning 18 days, and not one day more in Flanders, nor in Brussels-Capital, nor Wallonia. They were overcome by a far superior force. Shamefully and regretfully, not prepared in time for a war 20 years in the making. But there was much discussion in Belgium about why, and what to do the next time. That discussion lasted for years. But in May 1940, Belgium was not prepared.

 

The outcome? Well, forces from other countries joined together massively and the goal was obtained.

 

How quickly Belgians, and the world, forget.

I'm not suggesting that Belgians forget to commemorate D-Day or the Battle of the Bulge. 

Oh no. Not at all.

The King and members of the government were all seen sitting politely at the Mardasson Memorial in Bastogne. Sitting there very respectfully, under their unbrellas in the rain. While the old GIs that are left, were carried in their wheelchaires and oxygen bottles up to a spot where they damn near gave their lives for this dysunified country.

How touching.

 

Well how very, very touching the ceremonies and speeches were, and all caught on camera for those who preferred to stay home and sip a Jupiler beer.

 

Belgians will be the last to forget a Feast Day, Kermesse, or Laetare.

 

No, what Belgians seem to have forgotten was that other lesson that the GIs brought.

"Praise the Lord, and pass the ammunition."

That's a polite way of saying to each individual: "Get off your ass and get moving."

 

No matter what your government is telling you. Just do the right thing.

 

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It is time for Belgium to get off it's collective ass and load its weapons. 

If Belgium is perhaps just sneaking out of this viral attack, (and today no one knows if  that's true), it's time to remember the lesson.

 

For the world, not just for your tri-partite ass, get it together.

Most people seem to have two cheeks on their butt.

Belgians seem to have three.

Act now.

 

Belgian Flag

 

And Brussels the head of the European Union?  Don't make me laugh.

 

 

This virus spent a little time in Germany as well, in 2020.

Perhaps it's there that it learned to say : "Ich komme wieder."

 

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«It’s now or never.»


Thanks Elvis, for that timely reminder.


Bring together the resources.

There is no other way. Pool them. Fly them to wherever the next COVID-19 explosion occurs. Never stop until the virus surrenders in all countries of the world. Breath in deeply, the message that you and your country must now care for our world.  Not just your own country. Forget those case number Olympics.Try to feel it in your guts, as your world. Cry a bit when deaths increase in Brazil or Mexico or Arizona. As though those people were part of your family. They are your family!


Everyone is clapping today for New Zealand. Feminists are touting its young Prime Minister.

«Experts» are writing in the New York Times, Washington Post, and the Lancet: «Well of course. New Zealand is an island.»

Oh. How,  ... well, ... duhhh...


And in spite of that useful reminder of an early geography lesson about islands, I prefer John Donne's :

«No man is an island.»


Either today is D-Day, or it’s time to go hide in your bunker and clean your automatic weapon in anticipation of Armageddon. Don't have your automatic weapon yet?

Don't go to New Zealand. Their sale is against the law there.  Buy a few in the States.

You decide.


It’s now or never.

 

 

 

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13/06/2020
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4 June at CoronaStavelot.com

Let's see if we can make sense of this.

Then again ... Why?

 

At the end of today's note, something to listen to.

Then again, maybe to start off, listen to it now.

It's 16 minutes from a Podcast.

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

First, showing deaths

JH CSSE - 4 June, 2020 - CFR

 

This gives a worldwide Case Fatality Ratio of 386,111 / 6,514,359 =  5.927% 

Take that as a marker of severity of this COVID-19 illness. Some countries do better, and some worse.

 

Cheerier note: Recovered cases.

 

JH CSSE - 4 June, 2020 - Recovered

 

2,808,917 / 6,514,359 = 43.12% recovered around the world. Yeah!

 

But notice on both images, in the lower right corner, a graph of Daily Cases for the 188 countries combined that Johns Hopkins CSSE is reporting on. Well, unfortunately, that continues to rise as it moves to the right. 

 

Some comparisosns.

 

Since this all started in February where I am, Here is the CoronStavelot Index (known globally as the CSI), to help put in perspective where we have gotten to on our planet this day ...

 

Lots of numbers on that graphic below ! 

 

In Pink: case data back on February 27.

In yellow: today, June 4, 2020 (I always put the year in case this lasts a decade or so).

In light blue: the % change in various parameters.

 

Let's go through it by the (white on green) numbers.

1.) the % of the world population involved with COVID-19 cases. Less than a tenth of 1%. Think about that. Now place that in the perspective of how the media are "selling" this.

2.) we are day 97 where I am, of tracking these very interesting data.

3.) our start date : 27 February

4.) today's date : 4 June

5.) change in the death rate between the two dates: 73.9% higher now than in February. As we'll see, that increase, followed day after day, is decreasing.

6.) Some little numbers to express ratio's 0.708 person(s) recovered, for each 1 person actively ill. Or the glass half-empty approach: 1.182 persons actively ill, for each person who has recovered from COVID-19. This requires confidence that the actual cases are being diagnosed and reportedly accurately.

7.) A purely ridiculous number: since February 27, the number of actively ill patients around the world (46,466 on that date) has increased 7,044% to today's value of 3,319,331 patients still sick with this.

8.) The goal is to place all this in perspective. Since this began, the world's population has increased by a net 20,722,458 individuals and counting. Even including the 386,111 deaths from COVID-19.

 

CSI - June 4, 2020 - numbered

 

 

And World Population looked like this ...

 

World Population - 4 June, 2020 at 10h44m58s

 

 

Here is a little gallery of graphs that display some of these evolutions in cases:

 

 

Ranking the outcomes from the 27 countries we've been following since end of February seems popular on some days. We'll indicate the country where we are in each case, and its position for each of these variables. The column used to sort, is higjhlighted in yellow on the charts that follow.

 

Prevalance reflects the burden of this disease in each country, since its arrival. Cases par million inhabitants. This number gets added to, each day. It will be summed so that on the last day that the records are archived, will be the highest number. If things go well, that high number will become stable at some point, and no longer increase. But it will never come down. What will come down (one day) is the incidence. 

 

Prevalence, ranked - 4 June, 2020

 

 

Deaths can be further defined or corrected for median age in a country, as well as level of health before COVID-19 arrived, but as a first pass, Case Fatality Ratios given below reemain useful.

 

 

Deaths per million, ranked - June 4, 2020

 

 

Those actively ill per million inhabitants, ranked

 

Actively ill; ranked - June 4, 2020

 

 

 

If those actively ill have changed over time, especially from one country to the next, at a worldwide level, at present, the number of Actively ill continues to increase. The equation associated with the curve below, allows predicting tomorrow's value. But recently, predicted values have lagged a few percentage points below actual results. Today, this error of the estimate is about -5%.

 

Change in Actively iLL - June 4, 2020

 

But before getting too impatient, or losing hope, here's one that we prefer ...

 

A to R ratio and values - 7 days - June 4

When compared with those who are recovering, while active cases lead recovered cases each day, the ratio is heading in the right direction.

 

Or if you prefer to see the glass half-filled, the recovered-to-active-cases ratio continues to improve during the past week..

 

R to A ratio and values - 7 days - June 4

 

As COVID-19 moves around the world, the duration of infection in a country, becomes a key determinant for meaningful comparisons. Here is that duration ranked.

 

 

Months of Infection, ranked - 4 June, 2020

 

 

And how successful have each of these 27 countries been with the time spent facing the virus?

 

For instance, recovery can be ranked in a way that includes this duration. Some countries seem to have made better use of this time with the virus, admittedly a strange way to put that, than others.

Here are the data ranked by '% Recovered per Days of Infection.  Some might say that those at the top of this ranked list are the countries that responded effectively to this challenge. They merit further study.

 

% Recovered per day of infection, ranked - June 4, 2020

 

 

The chart below helps summarize levels of Active illness, Deaths, and Recovered patients in each of these 27 countries.

The goal is to get one's country to green.

A-D-R, June 4, 2020

 

Should be about enough for this day.

 

While cautious optimism is always defensible, at a world level, we are crazy percentage levels above where things were on February 27. 

 

In those countries now on the down side of the hump, re-opening schools and busenesses is anticipated with a mixture of glee and anxiety. Where we are located in Europe, results of such re-openings should be available around June 20th. Fingers are crossed. Explanations from the government of how this reopening will transpire are so complicated, as to be ignored by many.

 

Stay safe.

 

Be personally responsible for your good outcome!

 

 

And have a nice day.  We will make it through.

 

 

But before you go, have a listen to what's below.

These are of course difficult times, filled with uncertainty.

Is your things to do list simply on hold?

Does nothing on it seem important enough to simply begin?

Are you just waiting for "the big one" to arrive, hopefully good, and not bad, ... but just waiting?

At present, accept that little successes are huge accomplishments. 

Clear off your desk.

Sort through that pile of stuff in the corner of the garage.

Take a tiny step, take a breath, take another.

 

Have a listen ...

 

It's an episode from a podcast that comes from here.

 

 

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Yesterday in Belgium (in French, but lots of graphic data) >>>>>>

 

 

 

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04/06/2020
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