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The Billy Plan (Le Plan Billy) - 3 - Overview

 

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This article is written in English because we need the World to respond. Use the above translator as needed !

 

Cet article est rédigé en anglais car nous avons besoin d'une réponse globale. Utilisez le traducteur ci-dessus au besoin!

 

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This must be a cooperatve effort. Or there is no "Billy Plan."

 

The component parts are :

 

Overview - BP

 

 

1.) The Setting describes the need.

 

The Setting has already been presented. 

 

Today's reported cases of people positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Stavelot, increased once again to 338 from 311 yesterday and 298 the day before. That rate of increase should be its own motivator to action. That has also been covered elsewhere. "Be fast. Have No Regrets.  if you need to be right before you move, you will never win."

 

2.) Sealing the borders. 

Who can enter? Who passes through?
ID bracelets identify those who belong to 4970 Stavelot.
If you know Stavelot, get a similar visual image as the city's entry control points during Laetare.
Those who must pass and enter, for to-and-from work travel for example,  must be identified as a group.

Which are still permitted, and which are not? This is a task for the team involved in this topic.
DO what works. DO it quickly.

 

Actually, the entire city borders of Stavelot represents the first set of limits. Behavior therein should be in many ways, very similar to that in "The Colony." (see below)

Sealing the borders is the only way to get control of the system.

Think of all those positive cases brought back to Belgium recently from "red zones," by thoughless travellers. We are now learning what is more important: one's health or a vacation. Many chose the wrong answer.

 

3.) NATO (l'OTAN) and the Army

What is required  in steps 4.) and 5.) of the Billy Plan will not happen if one thinks that one can do this with local resources only. This problem is in fact already much larger than just setting up for the Laetare, and sweeping up the streets afterwards. Humanitarian aid is required right now from those who address wars, natural disasters, and major epidemics. This is now a major epidemic. Providing, moving, and installing facilities and materiel is what successful armies are all about. Stavelot needs the Army.

 

4.) The Colony

Step number 5.) of the Billy Plan will quickly generate many positive results. These are people who have the virus, and can unwillingly transmit it to those who do not. To stop that chain of transmission, positive cases must and will be separated from the population. It is known that at least 70% of such transmissions of the virus happen at home. Subsequently, family members go out to transmit elsewhere: schools, universities, at work, on the bus. Those admitted to "The Colony" are not placed there for punishment for their positive SARS-CoV-2 status. People in quarantine need to be supported. These are not "camps" with names written above the entrance that still echo in our memory. The population of Stavelot loves it's public amusemuents, and is known for these. Many days do not pass on the calendar before the next feast is welcomed. "The Colony" will have its amusements: Stavelot-style. It will support its residents so they know they are cared for. SO they know that they are in the right place.

 

5.) Testing

One enters The Colony becasue one has tested postive for SARS-CoV-2. The Belgian Public Health system has set many limits on testing. Some for obvious reasons: no reagents or other materiel was the first. But those days are now behind us. And the testing philosphy that grows out of these valid concerns, today recommending testing only symptomatic individuals, is simply wrong. The populace must also understand that a negative test today or yesterday, should not be taken as a passport to then doing whatever you want. You could be positive tomorrow and bring it home to your family.

 

More will be appearing on our specific approach to testing as this Plan gets implemented.

 

The entire population of Stavelot will be tested. A laboratory in Liège that can handle 8000 tests per day has been hampered and manacled by legal debate and unthinking court decisions. Now that must end. We have already seen how the Ghlin region of Mons is moving ahead. What is Stavelot waiting for? All of Stavelot will be tested once a week, for 3 subsequent weeks. If the testing method used has a significant error rate, then all positives will be followed up with a "golden standard" test with better sensitivty and specificity. Discharge from The Colony happens only after 14 days, and a negative test on two sequential days. If someone asks you to contribute 5 or 10€ to pay for your test, reach into your pocket, and do so with a smile. Think of how many times you reached into that same pocket for 50€ to pay for a round of drinks for your friends.

 

6.) Finance, Policy and Politics

The latter of the three is mentioned only to be cautioned against. If "L'Union Fait La Force," this is not the time for division into groups as Belgium still witnesses this day. Community acceptance is essential. Communication, coherence, coordination will not manifest if that acceptance is absent. Then we can each just wait our turn for the next available hospital bed. What was not done in a timely fashion before today, is why the hospital beds are filling up as we write this. Those with expertise in finance, policy and management, and a desire to help arising in present urgency, must be present and not absent from the effort, as too often happens. WIthout their participation and contribution, the "Billy Plan" is nonexistant.

 

If the above outline has already raised many clouds of objection, questionning and perceived problems, that's good. The opportunity exists today, for you to join with others and find needed answers for all of these. It's a Challenge. Accept Defeat? Certainly not at this time when the virus has already successfully established its beach head in our city.

 

All that's missing is your signature on the contract that says you will do your part to end the epidemic in Stavelot. And you can write that contract however you like.

 

You know better than anyone else, your personal gifts that will help save this great little town.

 

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If this all sounds like several different goals, or too complicated prcedurally, let me state to be clear just one overriding goal : to break the chains of transmission of this virus.

Too much time has already been lost.

There should be NO further waiting.

 

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Eventually Stavelot may put up another little monument, with a few words carved in grey stone:

 

 

"This is where the people of Stavelot, brought an end to the pandemic."

 

it will be placed where "The Colony" was once located.

In memory of all those who believed and took action, even when quite afraid to do so.

WIth a little luck now, they will have merited that honor.

 

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26 October : Know when to go fast >>>>>>>>>>

 

 

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25/10/2020
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Vous allez battre ce coronavirus. You're going to beat this.

(English follows below, at the letter E : )

 

F :

Cette page apparaîtra toujours en tête des autres articles de cette catégorie.

Actuellement, ceci n'est pas un article. Il s'agit d'une page qui sert de premier lien vers des articles.

Ce sont tous des articles qui décrivent ce que je fais face à divers aspects du défi actuel.

Inévitablement, cela sera influencé par environ 25 ans de formation et de pratique chirurgicales.

 


Si vous avez déjà lu ce qui suit, cliquez sur ce lien pour accéder à la page qui renvoie facilement à des articles spécifiques.

 


Le but n'est pas de contredire les conseils d'experts que vous avez déjà obtenus.

C'est pour ajouter à ces conseils. Pour vous aider à façonner votre propre approche. Du lavage des mains (où vous êtes déjà expert) à la préparation d'une solution diluée d'eau de Javel pour décontaminer les surfaces.

 


Récemment, j'ai placé devant le public un questionnaire sur la façon dont les gens gèrent l'ambiance COVID-19 .


Bien que pas encore terminé, j'ai suffisamment de réponses pour présenter certaines questions. C'est une mauvaise habitude à prendre avant de clore un sondage. Mais j'ai trouvé des réponses inquiétantes. Pourtant, pas surprenantes. Cet espace sera donc guidé par ces réponses pour fournir des informations supplémentaires lorsque nous le pourrons.

 

 

  • Les répondants sont de tous âges.
  • Seuls 8% ne sont pas effrayés par l'actualité. 88% éprouvent une crainte et une anxiété modérées à importantes.
  • Une petite majorité (54%) pense qu'ils finiront par être positifs pour cette maladie virale.
  • Les deux tiers pensent que s'ils tombent malades, ils auront une maladie pas trop grave. Un tiers pensait que ce serait probablement grave et nécessiterait une hospitalisation. Personne ne pensait qu'elle ne serait pas malade du tout, ou asymptomatique, bien que positive.
  • 25% n'ont aucun problème avec l'isolement ou l'auto-confinement. La plupart (54%) éprouvent parfois des difficultés.
  • Suivre les directives, les limitations et les conseils du gouvernement est la voie à suivre absolue pour 83% des répondants.

 

Sans une analyse plus approfondie à ce moment, qui devrait avoir lieu après plus de 30 réponses, ces réponses suggèrent un besoin et une opportunité.

 

Sans vouloir engendrer trop d'activisme, il est clair que les personnes interrogées jusqu'à présent sont assez favorables aux conseils de leur gouvernement et acceptent ses mesures actuelles restreignant les libertés individuelles pour le bien public. À l'heure actuelle, ce gouvernement n'existe pas encore officiellement, bien qu'il fonctionne quotidiennement. Des décisions ont été prises pour limiter les signalements de localités où l'infection s'est produite, en les regroupant par les trois régions du pays. Même manque d'explication sur l'utilisation de tous les réactifs de test, dans les 6 premiers jours de COVID-19. Un manque de prépara tion semble évident. Ce pays n'est pas le seul à commencer la course bien après que le coronavirus soit bien sorti du bloc de départ.

 

Un système de triage des tests a été mis en place et existe toujours. La priorité est donnée aux tests effectués sur des personnes dont le médecin demandeur remplit sur le formulaire de demande de test qu'il s'agit d'un cas clinique, urgent. Si vous aviez besoin d'un test, que demanderiez-vous à votre médecin d'écrire?

 


Nous allons donc utiliser cet espace pour combler les lacunes au mieux à partir d'un ordinateur de bureau.

Ce sera pour partager de petites choses. Des choses qui peuvent changer les habitudes personnelles juste assez pour faire la différence. Juste assez, peut-être, pour sauver une vie.

 

 

Nous n'accepterons pas que l'obtention de COVID-19 soit une réponse majoritaire appropriée.

Tout faire pour éviter l'infection et la transmission est la voie que nous devrions tous suivre.

 

Un pourcentage important, peut-être un tiers, pense qu’à terme, ils tomberont suffisamment malades pour avoir besoin de soins hospitaliers. Ici, nous pensons qu’un mouvement dans cette direction doit être combattu avec véhémence. L'idée de protéger les ressources de santé est importante. La pensée la plus importante est de vous protéger.

 

 

Notre devise ici sera:

Je ne l'attraperai pas. Je ne le donnerai pas.

Il ne s'agira pas de recommandations pour modifier ou commenter les décisions politiques.

 

Il s'agira de faire de petites choses qui pourraient aider.


C'est désormais une priorité. La notification des changements de prévalence de cette maladie, dans le monde et localement en Belgique, aura toujours lieu. Le but de cette pratique est de ne pas se retrouver dans le noir face à où on va, et la vitesse de ce parcours. Cela conduit à plus de panique, d'accidents et de mauvaises décisions. Faire ce que votre voisin a décidé de faire n'est peut-être pas la meilleure décision. Les guerres du passé l'ont prouvé à maintes reprises.

 


Alors, commençons. Sans plus tergiverser.

Cliquez sur le lien ci-dessus pour voir nos suggestions utiles. Ceux-ci seront ajoutés quotidiennement.

 

 

 

<<<<<<< vers l'Accueil

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E : This page will always appear first at the head of other articles in this category.

If effect, this is not an article. This is a page that serves as a first to link to articles.

They are all articles that describe what I do when faced with various aspects of the present challenge.

Inevitably, that will be influenced by about 25 years of surgical training and practice.

 

If you have already read what follows, click this link to go to the page that links in an easy way, to specific articles.

 

The goal is not to contradict expert advice that you have already obtained.

It is to add to that advice. To help shape your own approach to everything from handwashing to making a dilute solution of Clorox for decontaminating surfaces.

 

Recently, I placed a questionnaire about how people are dealing with COVID-19 before the public. It is in French, as is its intended audience. 

 

Though not yet completed, I have enough answers to present some of questions. That's a bad habit to get into before closing a survey. But I found the answers disturbing. Yet, not surprising. So this space will be guided by these responses to provide answers and additional information when we can.

 

 

    • The respondants are of all ages.
    • Only 8% are not frightened by current events. 88% experience a moderate to large amount of fear and anxiety.
    • A small majority (54%) believe that they will eventually test positive for this viral illness.
    • Two-thirds believe that if they become sick, they will have a not too severe illness. One-third thought it would proabably be severe and require hospitalization. No one thought that he or she would not be sick at all, or asymptomatic, though testing positive.
    • 25% are having no problem with isolation or auto-confinement. Most (54%) find it at times difficult.
    • Following directives and limitations  and advice from the government, is the absolute right way to go for 83% of the respondents. 

 

WIthout further analysis, which should happen after more than 30 responses, these answers suggest a need and an opportunity. 

 

Without wanting to engender too much activism, it is clear that respondents so far are quite condifent in their government's advice and accept its current measures restricting individual liberties for the public good. At present, that government doesn't yet exist officially, though functioning daily. Decisions were taken to limit reports of localities where infection occured, grouping these by the three regions of the country. Same lack of explanation about using up all testing reagents in the first 6 days of COVID-19. A system of triage of tests was put in place and still exists. Priority is given to tests of individuals where the ordering physician completes on the test request form that this is clinically, an urgent case. If you needed a test, what would you ask your doctor to write in ? 

 

So we'll be using this space to fill in the gaps as best can be done from a desktop computer.

This will be to share little things. Things that may change personal habits just enough to make a difference. Just enough, perhaps, to save a life. 

 

We will not accept that getting COVID-19 is an appropriate majority response.

Doing all one can to avoid infection and transmission is the path we should all be on.

A significant percentage, perhaps a third, believe that eventually they'll just get sick enough to require hospital care. Here, we feel that a move in that direction should be fought against vehemently. The thought of protecting healthcare resources is an important one. The more important thought, is protecting you.

 

Our motto here will be : I won't get it. I won't give it.

This will not be about recommendations for sweeping policy decisions. 

It will be about doing small things that might help.

 

This is now a priority. The reporting of changes in prevalence, worldwide and locally in Belgium will still take place. The goal there is to not find oneself in the dark about where this is going and at what rate. That leads to more panic, accidents, and bad decisions. Doing what your neighbor has decided to do, may not be the best decision. Wars in the past, proved that over and over.

 

So let's get started.

Click the above link to see our useful suggestions. These will be added to on a daily basis.

 

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29/03/2020
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Un Index des articles de cette catégorie (An Index of articles in this category)

 

 

F:  L'utilisation de masques semble être un sujet déroutant. Voici notre approche.

E:  Use of masks seems to be a confusing subject. Here's our approach.

Cliquez ici (Click this link)

 

F:  Pourquoi prendre sa température avant de tomber malade est important.

E:  Why taking your temperature before getting sick is important.

Cliquez ici (Click this link)

 

F:  Comment préparer un dilution de 1,5% d'eau de Javel pour désinfecter les surfaces.

E: How to prepare a 1.5% dilution of bleach to disinfect surfaces.

Cliquez ici (Click this link)

 

F:  Que faire avec ses chaussures? Elle peuvent rentrer le coronavirus chez vous? Oui.

E:  Can your shoes bring in a few coronaviruses to check out your house? You bet.

Cliquez ici (Click this link)

 

E:  What about all your paper money that you have to count each day? Take no risks. 

Put it in a manila envelope, and send it to us.

Cliquez ici (Click this link)

 

 

----- d'autres sources -----

 

F:   Si vous vivez avec une personne atteinte du COVID-19: Conseils de SPF Santé publique.

 

 

 

 

 

 

<<< back to the introduction/ article précédent

 

<<<<<<< vers l'Accueil/ Home 


29/03/2020
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The Billy Plan (Le Plan Billy) - Forum - guidelines for posting

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25/10/2020
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Let's widen our perceptions

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If you hadn't noticed, the COVID-19 pandemic is still going on.

 

Let's backtrack to a key point in the lessons that most have now mastered.

 

The experts said: (paraphrased) "If the vaccines are going to stop this virus, a level of herd immunity of 60 to 70% in a population will have to be reached."

 

And where are we now?

 

Well, where would you like to look? Very, very locally, or at the world?

Evolving a pandemia-related type of tunnel vision, helps one to make it calmly through the day.

 

Locally where I am (in Belgium) things look like this ...

The vaccinations in one city are sorted below by age groups.

 

VAccinations à Stavelot par tranches d\\\'âges

So, a slow start back in January. A push to get the elderly vaccinated by end of March, (the flat lines above mean not a lot of recent vaccinations for that subgroup). Vaccination of those 18 to 24 years picking up towards end of May. Children and adolescents starting at end of June, but still a small percentage of the total. 

 

One can move out just a bit further to compare different regions of Belgium with this same city, where 58% of the citizens have full vaccine coverage.

 

VAccinations à Stavelot, comparées - 6 août

 

And out of these comparisons, a correct impression arises that this city's performance is not the best result when compared with other regions, but not bad.

 

Progress is being made.

 

A target in Belgium had been set at vaccinating with at least one dose 9 180 601 Belgians of 18 years and older. (Belgium's population is just over 11.46 million inhabitants).

That goal was met. 14,870,000 doses have been administered, or 162% of that target. At present, an average of 45,419 vaccinations are administered each day here in Belgium.

 

Is that enough? Was that initial target meanigful? Has it stopped the virus in Belgium?

 

Is vaccination getting the job done? If answered for the local data here, it is also a meanigful question to be posed throughout the world. Vaccination has been thought of by many as a global "off-switch." That is likely to be proved wrong. That vaccination by itself will not be enough seems to be an increasingly supported theme.

 

Locally in 13 cities near the one just presented, cases continue to creep up, very, very slowly.

None of these local towns have found a way to make the numbers stop growing. Slowly growing at present, but not stopped. Here are 5 of these towns, showing numbers of total cases since late July.

 

Cas par villes et date

 

If the experts reappeared, they might quietly remind that 58% vaccinated is not 70%.

 

But is that local perspective, like using a magnifying glass, the right one?

 

The above city is located in the Province of Liège.

 

There, the incidence of COVID-19 is currently  12,133.6 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

And that today, presents a slight but constant increase in daily incidence figures over the last weeks.

Incidence involves defining a period of observation. So an image of walking around with a clipboard for a week and counting all the cases one could find is not too far off as explanations go. Could be reported for a year or other selected interval of observation as well. Once one has a method down, it can be applied to comparisons.

 

Just to the east in Luxembourg it's 11,863.39 per 100,000. A bit further to the east in the Rhineland of Germany, its 3,876.48 per 100,000.

 

Are those incidence results due to important differences in management by Public Health sectors of government? How much is policy? How much is public behavior?

 

In Algeria the incidence is 405.95 per 100,000 inhabitants.

In Ghana its 342.53 per 100K. 

In Somalia, 99.0 per 100K.

Are those good numbers from a perspective of reporting accuracy? Can we believe them?

Hard to say. They are from the same source.

 

Not clearly related perhaps, Luxembourg has the highest GDP-PPP$ rating in the world, ranked number 1 at  118,001$.

Somalia is near the bottom of the list, ranked number 192 at 923$.

 

Luxembourg's COVID-19 incidence rate is 120 times higher than that of Somalia.

 

Bad numbers? Or does the ability to pay for vaccines for one's population not solve the problem?

Clearly, as many European countries prepare to decide about a third dose of vaccine for their inhabitants, (Israel and Germany have already started) many countries that are ranked lower on the income ladder have yet to start.

 

Here are those global vaccination data today:

 

1

 

At #1: 29.6% and 15.2% as presented, based on the target proposed by the experts, means that at a World level, we're not even close to 60 or 70%. 

 

At #2: The vaccination numbers sound huge. They are huge: 4.4 billion of anything is huge. 

40 million people vaccinated each day is huge. So it's easy to form a mental image that we'll be done soon.

 

At #3: Yet another worldly maldistribution problem appears. "1.1% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose." 

1.1% of anything seems very small. Of course, multiply out 1.1% of these populations, add them up, and it's lots of people.

 

Which are the "low-income countries"? How many of them are there?

 

Well, those who count such things find about 24 countries where average median per capita income is below a line drawn at 3.571 thousand.

 

World - Low Income countries - 2021

 

 

Such data can be found here, from the International Monetary Fund. Or here in PDF in a quite complete document.

 

Such data might also quickly lead this article into a sticky discussion of what is fair in the business of world vaccination distribution and availability. Finding "fair" may be one approach. Finding "possible" means something else.

 

Let's once again retreat just a moment to a more local perspective.

 

In Belgium today, total numbers, 1 134 907 cases of COVID-19. Responsible for 25 264 Deaths.

With 1 062 447 who were infected, now counted as Recovered.

 

That leaves 47 196 Actively Ill with COVID-19 today in Belgium. In 47 104 cases (99.8%), a mild illness, and at present, 92 (0.2%) serious or critical.

 

Being ignored completely in those figures is the difference between counted cases (positive tests) and number infected and loose in the streets available for further transmission of the virus. (Ten to 12 times the other number).

 

Since we mentioned the subgroups of those Actively iLL and Recovered, the ratio of the two in the reported cases for the world looks like this recently:

 

World Recovered to Actively iLL and ratio

 

Simply put (as shown by the green line above) there are about 21 individuals who were sick who have now recovered, for each individual who is currently still Actively iLL. Certainly, that's good news, though the trend is currently downwards.

 

Those numbers may lean us towards a conclusion that the vaccination effort is effective and that the battle is being won. Maybe its the vaccine. It's probably a combined effect of several other things as well.

 

It remains that nothing in this COVID-19 situation today is free from uncertainty.

 

Uncertainty has become the by-word for daily existence. Let's look at this below:

World total doses and Actively iLL in the world, by date - 6 August, 2021

 

 

Going back to mid-May, about 1.5 billion doses of vaccine given (right side of the graph, in red). 

Cases of Actively iLL (in green, left side) trended downwards, and bottoming at end of June.

But since? As the big numbers for vaccination methodically rose (to almost 4.5 billion today),

so did the millions of individuals Actively iLL with COVID-19.

 

Why?

The experts would safely suggest that 15.2% fully vaccinated in our world isn't 70%.

Some of them might remind that this pandemic all began with just a relatively small (by comparison with today) number of cases. We have been living all those scary geometric-growth-in-transmission numbers right from the start. And each time that a downward slope seems to bottom out to give us hope, an upward trend has unfortunately begun once again and all to soon. 

 

The experts might summarize : "... still need to get more people vaccinated."

 

So who isn't vaccinated? 

Yes, there are the anti-vaxers and those who have been stalling to see who would drop dead from brain clots or get Guillain-Barré after the jab of Astra-Zeneca or any other vaccine.

 

As the well-to-do-countries winnow their way towards a third dose of vaccine, (you'll find them at the top of this list), the folks at the bottom of that list just don't seem to want to go away as the problem of non-vaccination gets analyzed and summarized.

 

One can approach that problem with discussions about countries that are in red zones or lighter shades of pink. One can carefully incorporate daily changing recommendations for travel, into a planned and sorely needed vacation. One can even start discussions and reactions to, about whether we should be making efforts to get someone in Somalia vaccinated, when that person might just be a Somali pirate. Perhaps the close friend of a murdering dictator in some other "low-income" country is awaiting a vaccine as well.

 

That's not it.

 

One can feel pushed to act fast by reports from those on the medical front line that this Delta-variant illness is once again, ... a source of important uncertainties. Those catching the thing and getting quite sick at times, seem to be the "younger, sicker, quicker" to decompensate group of patients. We have mastered saving all the elderly in Nursing Homes. It's not them anymore

 

Do we just need to learn a little bit more about all of this?

More armchair epidemiologists needed? Is that it?

 

Let's take a break for a little video ...

(You can leave your PC's sound on, this video is silent). 

 

 

This comes from a great page that you can find here at Worldometer.

 

I'll show my bias right off the bat, but let's pick one activity that has replaced music lessons or playing chess.

 

Spent on Video Games TODAY : 225 668 712 million dollars. Today.

 

 

A dose of AstraZeneca vaccine here in Belgium sells for 1.78€ (2.093$US).

 

So a day's worth of Video Games buys: 107.820.694 doses of AstraZeneca vaccine (assuming the same price as just given). 

 

Population of Somalia?  16 375 690.

 

(16 375 690 x 2) = 32 751 380

 

A day's worth of Video Games fully vaccinates everyone in Somalia, and leaves 75 069 314 doses for some of the other "low-income" countries.

 

I can hear it already: "You're going to ask me to give up buying a Video Game so somebody can vaccinate a Somali pirate ? !" 

 

Answer: "Yup. We'll vaccinate the bastard."

 

Why would one do that?

 

Well, if one is only interested in protecting one's own health, so that the downstream contacts of that Somali pirate, don't bring the virus to your home for your end-of-year Holidays. 

 

Look again at that little one minute video above. Notice what is now occupying our social existence. Think about what occupied our existence and those of our parents about 50 or so years ago. Even more recently.

 

How many times did you check your eMail today?

 

Our world has changed.

But if we want to keep it, now is the time to think our way out of this box, face the uncertainties, create possibilities, and get a move on.

 

Or we can wait to see which of the Ten Plagues reappears next. We've had Mad Cow Disease, a need to destroy Minks in Denmark, Fires and Floods, and Locusts, and we've got the Pandemic now. What's next?

 

It's time to start dreaming a way out, that includes others besides ourselves.

 

 

 

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06/08/2021
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