coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

12 May at CoronaStavelot.com

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - May 12, 2020 at 06h32m22s

187 countries summarized by JH CSSE.

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World population - May 12, 2020 at 07h22m34s

 

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI)

 

Feb 27 data in pink, today's data in yellow, and the changes between the two dates in blue.

Impressive levels of change continue.

 

CSI - May 12, 2020

 

Here's how things have moved over time.

Deaths and those Recovered are tiny dots at the bottom.

So easily finding the disease in our world, and those still sick with it, remains "the big picture."

Trends 1 - May 12

 

Notice the red "Actively ill" columns, trying to start curving downwards.

 

Trends 2 - May 12

 

Trends 2wk - May 12

Trends 3 today - May 12

 

Trends 4 (Deaths) - May 12

 

 

100% above a value from the past (Feb 27) means that death rates globally are still high.

Trends 4 (Deaths 8 days) - May 12

But the start of a downwards trend, or at least a plateau in increases, seems quite possible.

Right action in all of this pestilence stuff, gets the right result. 

"An Br'er Bear, He Lay Low."

 

Country comparisons

Prevalence - cases per million inhabitants

Prevalence, ranked - May 12, 2020

 

How long has this been going on?

 

Months of Infection, ranked - May 12, 2020

 

 

 

44% of those who caught this, are still actively ill. (In these 27 countries that we've been following).

 

 

Actively ILL - graph - May 12, 2020

 

Fitting the rise in those actively ill to an equation looks like this ...

Actual cases are still slightly ahead of what this equation (and its desire to turn downwards) predicts.

 

Change in Actively ILL - May 12, 2020

 

 

Clearly, some countries have higher mortality rates than others.

 

% of Confirmed Cases who Died (CFR) - May 12, 2020

 

Death rates per million inhab

 

Here are the countries ranked by this Case Fatality Ratio (CFR).

 

 

Deaths per million inhabs, ranked - May 12, 2020

 

Those who are sick with COVID-19 seem to recover better in aome countries than others.

 

% Recovered per day of infection, ranked - May 12, 2020

 

 

Overall in these countries, nearly 50% have recovered. Ten countries are above 70% recovery rates.

That's a definite positive.

% Confirmed cases who recovered - May 12, 2020

 

 

Putting together these possible outcomes (still sick, died, recovered) looks like this below ...

The goal is to turn each country (each column) completely green. The blue piece won't go away, but the red piece eventually will. Or is to be hoped for and obtained with proper management.

What's that?

Separate all people who are infected from those who are not. Sounds easy, but the people get in the way.

 

A-D-R - May 12, 2020

 

 

How about doing more tests for SARS-CoV-2 ?

 

That depends on how and how soon testing is applied.

Just doing more tests doesn't decrease death rates. It certainly doesn't impact on the amount of disease in a country, at least not initially. It doesn't seem to get a country to more recovered cases.

 

So its utility is in identifying individuals who are sick, so that they can be separated from those who are not. And since attitudes towards isolation, and the pratice of effective quarantining of cases varies so much from one country to the next, (and local areas or States in a given country), hard to find proof of the positive effect that must be there.

 

Just doing more tests isn't enough. 

To keep the numbers small, test a lot, and test early after the arrival of COVID-19 illness.

Even better said, before the illness called COVID-19 establishes itself, use tests to go out and find all those infected with SARS-CoV-2, its viral cause. Do it quickly, isolate them, keep the numbers small.

 

 

Tests per million inhab

 

 

This need for managing and deciding upon the right choices, is seen in the fact that simply "waiting it out" doesn't give the equivalent outcome from one country to the next as the virus "passes through."

Below, the "X" axis presents months of living with the virus. If it was just passage of time that heals this viral wound, independant of the response to it by a country, one should find less green on the left and more green on the right. 

 

Doesn't look like that right now.

 

A-D-R- by months of Infection - May 12, 2020

 

 

-----------

 

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries : 

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem, play some music.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, (57%) is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
  13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.
  14. Bill collectors seem much less active.
  15. There are moments of mental lucidity. For example: I had already lived through some crappy periods in my life, but I think this one takes the cake.
  16. Thankful to not have to be on the front lines as this approaches. Praying for those who are.
  17. Centering : spending more time doing things that should make a difference. Less counting.
  18. "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
  19. Distance may separate me physically from my family. But we are constantly with each other. That can never be confined.
  20. Grateful for all those who sell and deliver items purchased online. It's still possible. (But wipe the box with Clorox before opening! (Didn't use to do that) ...
  21. An increase in the numbers of moments of absolute silence.
  22. Math can be tedious. A times very revealing. And that's a positive.
  23. Sleeping. Solid as a rock.
  24. There seems to be an increased ability to listen. To others, but also to oneself.
  25. Land mines do not usually go off by themselves. You have to step on them. Stay isolated !
  26. Essential items are recognized more easily.
  27. Imagine if one day somebody appears and says: "You know, all this confinement stuff was not really necessary. All you had to do was ... " Couldn't you just punch a guy like that in the face?
  28. Returning to things ignored for too long (working in the quiet and smells of the greenhouse).
  29. Identifying more clearly, one's limits of patience.
  30. Actually comforted by being able to get away from crowds.
  31. Turning correct conclusions into correct action, and sometimes, correct non-action.
  32. Being able to identify the lemmings more clearly by their self-interests.
  33. "The brave men who fought here, have consecrated it far beyond our poor power to add or detract."
  34. It took distancing, to help us find more closeness to others. More similarities. Fewer differences.
  35. Much more time to rediscover things set aside long ago. (Example: The Beatle's White Album).
  36. Very grateful for indoor plumbing.
  37. Ease up. Taking a day off doesn't mean the world won't be there tomorrow.
  38. Some days, anxiety will creep up on you. When things are getting raw, it's that. Recognize it. And take that decision you've been putting off. Turn it into action. 
  39. Saying less. Listening more. Being more selective in one's listening. Tuning out noise.
  40. Conforted to see that Nature is getting along just fine, without my support.
  41. Accepting that it's not over yet, calms the soul.
  42. Discovering that patience is in fact possible, but signs of hope always help.

 

 

Now that you've done your homework ...

Listen to Brother Timothy the Storyteller, as he puts this all together for you.

Tough to beat the Irish at rising out of disasters, especially those they caused ...

 

 

SItuation in Belgium today (in French, but lots of graphs) >>>>>>>>>

 

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12/05/2020
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