coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

9 March at CoronaStavelot.com

A look at COVID-19 in our world. Monday morning, March 9, 2020

Present location : eastern Belgium

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - March 9 at 06h43m02s

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Pop - March 9, 2020 at 07h22m33s

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI March 9, 2020

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, to 0.001441%. The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.

One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 1.44 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

(click to enlarge) -

Trends 1

Trends #2

(click to enlarge) -

Trends 2

 

Trends #3 : this day only, March 9, to see results more clearly, compared with Feb. 27

Trends 3

In all of the above graphs, "SD" = start date (Feb. 27), and "DD" = data date (today, Monday 9 March).

 

Results:

(red bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, corrected for the world population on the same day, compared with those of February 27, increased by 33.89%. This is the change in "world prevalence."

(green bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 40.7%.

(blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 1.96% Yesterday this figure was -0.693%.

(yellow bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 33.93%. (Almost the same as when corrected for world population [red bar]).

(purple bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, diminished  by -4.84%. (Fewer people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February. At the same time, that overall speed of recovery is now reducced, as more new cases continue to appear).

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 2,534 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and 2,400 new cases per day, yesterday. Warning! included in "confirmed cases" are also those who are cured. Those who died as well. This figure suggests that the virus continues to spread worldwide as suggested on the Johns Hopkins dashboard map above.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (32,897 Feb 27; 62,000 Mar 9)
  • Deaths rate remains low (3.476% of confirmed cases die), increasing slightly (0.067%)when compared with that value (3.409%) February 27. This rate of change (1.96%) increased from that presented yesterday (-0.69%).
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (44,216 today), increased 3.188% since yesterday, (42,625). This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 44,216 Actively Sick today, that's -4.842% below the value on Feb. 27. It does continue to approach that previous level. This fits reported decreases in earliest cases in China, and increases in multiple countries worldwide. South Korea, Italy, Iran, France , Germany are primary centers of epidemic this day.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Active Cases Polynomial - March 9, 2020

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 is currently increasing.
  • This value of Actively Sick is still lower today, than it was on February 27
  • Number of Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 44,216. The equation predicts for this day: 44,442.
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 97.5% of the time) with an error in this estimate of 0.511%.
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will increase tomorrow to 47,109 Actively Sick. Yesterday, the value predicted for today was 46,394 Actively Sick. Actual is 44,216. That's an error of 4.93% higher than actual. Though a small difference, it allows one to hope that tomorrows results might show a new downwards trend.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide are increasing in number, but today's actual value (44,216) remains less than the value reported February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events. Errors in reporting could make such apparent differences less certain.

 

"And how old are you?"

Estimated Coronavirus Fatality Rates by Age Group (@DorsaAmir)

 

Continue to translate epidemiologic principles into daily behavior.

Is it too late for that? Is the horse out of the barn and not coming back?

As I shared yesterday in my notes taken during a WHO Press Briefing, the WHO doesn't think so.

Containment, country by country, is still possible.

Good luck where you are.

 

<<<<<< Yesterday's results

 

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09/03/2020
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