coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

8 March at CoronaStavelot.com

A look at COVID-19 in our world. Sunday morning, March 8, 2020

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - March 8 at 07h23m05s

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Pop - Mar 8

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - March 8 at 07h23h15s

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, to 0.001390%. The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.

One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 1.39 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

- (click to enlarge) -

Trends 1

 

Trends #2

 

- (click to enlarge) -

Trends 2

 

Trends #3 : this day only, March 8, to see results more clearly, compared with Feb. 27

 

- (click to enlarge) -

Trends 3

 

In all of the above graphs, "SD" = start date (Feb. 27), and "DD" = data date (today, Sunday 8 March).

 

Results:

(red bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, corrected for the world population on the same day, compared with those of February 27, increased by 29.17%. This is the change in "world prevalence."

(green bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 41.02%.

(blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -0.693% Yesterday this figure was +0.212%.

(yellow bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 29.206%. (Almost the same as when corrected for world population [red bar]).

(purple bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, diminished  by -8.266%. (Clearly, fewer people Actively Sick when compared with 27 February. At the same time, that speed of recovery is now reducced, since more new cases appearing).

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 2,400 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28. Warning! included in "confirmed cases" are also those who are cured. Those who died as well. This figure suggests that the virus continues to spread.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (32,897 Feb 27; 59,942 Mar 8)
  • Deaths are few in number, and the death rate remains low (3.385% of confirmed cases die), decreasing slightly (0.024%)when compared with that value (3.409%) February 27. This rate of change (-0.69%) diminished again from that presented yesterday (0.21%).
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (42,625 today), increased 3.188% since yesterday, (41,308). This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 42,625 Actively Sick today, that's a reduction in Actively Sick of -8.266%.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Fun with Numbers - Mar 8

 

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 is currently increasing.
  • This value of Actively Sick is still lower today, than it was on February 27
  • Number of Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 42,625. The equation predicts for this day: 42,882.
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 98.12% of the time) with an error in this estimate of 0.603%.
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will increase tomorrow to 46,394 Actively Sick. But lets not start forecasting beyond tomorrow...

 

In English Please ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide are increasing in number, but today's actual value (42,625) is less than the value reported February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events. 

 

The main reason to translate and apply epidemiologic principles to our daily behavior,

is that they work to stop pandemics.

 

First

we must have in hand a list of these principles, simply presented.

 

Second

we must convert each principle to an applicable  method, where possible.

Where impossible, try to define a next best option.

 

Third

we must check each day, to see how closely we are following the method formulated.

 

Otherwise

we're just kidding ourselves.

 

"Hey, that sounds like a lot of work !"

Yes. That's true.

 

<<<<<< Yesterday's results

 

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08/03/2020
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