coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

7 March at CoronaStavelot.com

Let's see the satellite images ...

"From a distance the world looks blue and green
And the snow capped mountains white
From a distance the ocean meets the stream
And the eagle takes to flight."

 

(lyrics to this song by Julie Gold, that Bette Midler covered. With French translation).

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - Mar 7 2020 at 06h13m03s

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Pop - Mar 7 at 07h22m35s

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - March 7 2020 at 07h22m35s

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, to 0.001338%. The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.

One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 1.34 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends 1

Trends 2

 

Trends #3 : this day only, March 7, to see results more clearly, compared with Feb. 27

 

Trends 3

 

In all of the above graphs, "SD" = start date (Feb. 27), and "DD" = data date (today).

 

Results:

(red bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, corrected for the world population on the same day, compared with those of February 27, increased by 24.340%. This is the change in "world prevalence."

(green bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 40.267%.

(blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 0.212% Yesterday this figure was 0.865%.

(yellow bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 24.371%. (Almost the same as when corrected for world population [red bar]).

(purple bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, diminished  by -11.101%. (Clearly, fewer people Actively Sick when compared with 27 February. At the same time, that speed of recovery is now reducced, since more new cases appearing).

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 2,225 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28. Warning! included in "confirmed cases" are also those who are cured. Those who died as well. This figure suggests that the virus continues to spread.
  • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (32,897 Feb 27; 57,389 Mar 7)
  • Deaths are few in number, and the death rate remains low (3.416% of confirmed cases die), increasing slightly (0.212%)when compared with that value (3.409%) February 27. This rate of change diminished again from that presented yesterday (0.865%).
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (41,308 today), increased 4.366% since yesterday, (39,580). This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 41,308 Actively Sick today, that's a reduction in Actively Sick of -11.101%.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Fun with Numbers - Mar 7, 2020

 

Interpretation

Even without the trend curve, the conclusion for today seems evident.

 

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 is currently increasing.
  • This value of Actively Sick is still lower today, than it was on February 27
  • A polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today, quite well, (on target 96.6% of the time) with an error of -1.5% (negative because today's actual data fall above the trend curve).

 

In English Please ...

  • China has a large population. Many became sick. Then, most began to recover. Most continue to recover. So the Number of Actively Sick diminished very nicely.
  • The COVID-19 virus spread to other countries, carried by travellers. It incubated for a while (i.e., carriers did not feel or look ill, so no impact on Actively Sick counts). So numbers continued to diminish as the Chinese recovered, and others worldwide were still asymptomatic, so not in the counts of Actively Sick.
  • The large number of cases seen in China continues to diminish as the "wave" of illness passes away from China.
  • The increase in active cases represents worldwide spread as the "wave" respresents each sick person's ability to contaminate 2 to 3 other persons if not isolated, one country after the next.
  • Impossible to make any predictions at this time, since outcome depends on effectiveness of isolation and treatment in each of the affected countries. Isolation depends on Public Health strategies at a level of personal responsibility, and government action. Treatment depends on diagnosis (history, physical examination, and tests) to identify cases, and effective sharing of treatment strategies that have worked so far, and those that have not. Suddenly, a Smartphone becomes a therapeutic tool.
  • For those who will never get sick at all with COVID-19 (negative tests or no tests, and no symptoms) the illness in need of treatment is anxiety and panic, fear and depression. It too needs attention and therapy. Most of the people in the world are simply having their noses pushed up against their  individual approach to human fraility and eventual mortality (sooner or later). Most would like to avoid such thoughts and have fun. They should just sit quietly with them, until all the useless chatter stops or diminishes, and the calm returns.
  • For those who will get sick with COVID-19 (positive test and symptoms) most will recover with only symptomatic care and reassurance.
  • Testing to get a positive or negative result in each case, may not be enough. Ideally, positive tests should be further defined. There are presently two known strains of COVID-19. One ("L") more aggressive, and the other, the older or ancestor strain, ("S"), less so. It may explain, as it did in China, why some get not so sick, and others very sick. Initially, cases in China were of the "L" strain and very sick. Essentially, the two groups have two different illnesses. Molecular biology needs to be working around the clock to make that distinction in positive cases, possible with a separate test. 
  • For those (3.4% death rate) who get very sick with COVID-19 (positive test, pneumonia, thick tenacious pulmonary secretions, increased work of breathing, hypoxia, hypoxemia, and need for supplemental oxygen, mechanical ventilation and ICU care), the best therapy to save lives is what is needed. This will only be present, in one country after the next, if physicians and staff apply what was learned in China. Much was learned. Two such examples will be presented in a subsequent article.

 

"Just when everything seemed to be going so well ..."

 

 

 

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07/03/2020
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