coronastavelot.com

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

Now, 187 countries summarized by JH CSSE.

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

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The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI)

Feb 27 data in pink, today's data in yellow, and the changes between the two dates in blue.

Impressive levels of change.

PDF if you prefer.

Trends: #1

Trends #2

Trends #3 - the past week

Values compared with levels on Feb 27 ...

Confirmed cases are still increasing. Actively ILL are increasing as well, but not as fast. (The tops of the two bars are a little closer at the end of the week thatn at the beginning).

Tends #4 

Today's results compared with Feb 27. We've come a long way.

Trends #5 

As seen above in blue, deaths remain not very changed since the beginning. One has to separate them to see what's going on.

Starting to round off at the top? 

Only time will tell. 

Easier to read the number, giving percent change since February, on the one below.

So that's a view at the World of COVID-19 this morning.

Let's compare some countries.

Here are 26 countries that we've been following for a while now.

These graphs say 5 May, but the values are actually those of 6 May, at 7:45AM.

Prevalence - cases per million inhabitants

That counts all confirmed cases in a country per million inhabitants. It answers: "How much disease burden has there been right from the start, and to which we add cases each day?"

Different from incidence. Incidence is taking an imaginary walk through a country, and seeing how many cases are actively present today. Tomorrow, the same walk and your count would be different since some will have appeares, and some will have disappeared by deaths or recoveries.

Another way of expressing Recovery. Nice to see that recovering from COVID-19 is possible. Some countries are a bit stuck.

Deaths

Again, a relatively rare event. But if it wasn't possible, and scary, we would all have forgotten this illness long ago.

As % of confirmed cases in these 26 countries.

Compare what you see above each countries column, with the average death rate for these 26 : 6.8% of those getting this illness die. That has crept up since the beginning when numnbers heard were 1 to 2%.

Decimal values if you prefer.

Deaths per million inhabitants. Belgium leads the way.

Typical of the countries that have the honor of leading in Death Rates, the experts suggest the number is actually lower. While that's possible, there are still lots of deaths being reported in Belgium. This day, a new pile of "previously unreported deaths" were added. One has to wonder. The fact that few have recovered and lots of people are still actively sick, seems to fit.

The raw data confirm that more deaths have occured in Belgium than in China.

The Actively ill looks like this.

I like to put the results together like this.

One column = 1 country.

Red : the actively ill

Blue : deceased

Green : recovered

The more green the better. Perhaps that's a model country for decisions taken.

Perhaps it's just the effect of time passing, and the illness quieting down. We'll look at that again below.

Here are the same countries, sorted by various variables

Ranking them like this makes them easier to compare.

Here is the prevalence = the amount of COVID-19 illness burden in each country.

Sorted by days of infection

Events like deaths seem to happen more at certain times as the virus moves through a country.

Recovery ?

Looks like this ...

Sorted by number recovered per million inhabitants, per day of infection in the country.

Huge populations will tend to drive a country to the bottom of the list. See the next chart.

Simply sorting % Recovered by day of infection helps identify the stronger countries up top, from the less successful below, marked with blue.

Does more testing help as much as the News says? 

It depends on how and to whom it's applied, and how sson after the virus lands in a country (often literally at the airports). Does the presence of an Active case prompt more testing? There are cetainly outliers in both direction.

How many tests are done to capture the next positive test result?

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Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries : 

1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
4. Time for expression: write a poem, play some music.
5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, (57%) is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.
14. Bill collectors seem much less active.
15. There are moments of mental lucidity. For example: I had already lived through some crappy periods in my life, but I think this one takes the cake.
16. Thankful to not have to be on the front lines as this approaches. Praying for those who are.
17. Centering : spending more time doing things that should make a difference. Less counting.
18. "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
19. Distance may separate me physically from my family. But we are constantly with each other. That can never be confined.
20. Grateful for all those who sell and deliver items purchased online. It's still possible. (But wipe the box with Clorox before opening! (Didn't use to do that) ...
21. An increase in the numbers of moments of absolute silence.
22. Math can be tedious. A times very revealing. And that's a positive.
23. Sleeping. Solid as a rock.
24. There seems to be an increased ability to listen. To others, but also to oneself.
25. Land mines do not usually go off by themselves. You have to step on them. Stay isolated !
26. Essential items are recognized more easily.
27. Imagine if one day somebody appears and says: "You know, all this confinement stuff was not really necessary. All you had to do was ... " Couldn't you just punch a guy like that in the face?
28. Returning to things ignored for too long (working in the quiet and smells of the greenhouse).
29. Identifying more clearly, one's limits of patience.
30. Actually comforted by being able to get away from crowds.
31. Turning correct conclusions into correct action, and sometimes, correct non-action.
32. Being able to identify the lemmings more clearly by their self-interests.
33. "The brave men who fought here, have consecrated it far beyond our poor power to add or detract."
34. It took distancing, to help us find more closeness to others. More similarities. Fewer differences.
35. Much more time to rediscover things set aside long ago. (Example: The Beatle's White Album).
36. Very grateful for indoor plumbing.
37. Ease up. Taking a day off doesn't mean the world won't be there tomorrow.
38. Some days, anxiety will creep up on you. When things are getting raw, it's that. Recognize it. And take that decision you've been putting off. Turn it into action. 
39. Saying less. Listening more. Being more selective in one's listening. Tuning out noise.
40. Conforted to see that Nature is getting along just fine, without my support.
41. Accepting that it's not over yet, calms the soul.

So if the reality of this pandemic looks like this ...

Why would one expect that that curve up, if it does begin to flatten at the top, would suddenly come crashing down to zero tomorrow? Look how smoothly it has risen. One should remain hopeful and personally cautious. 

So if we are day 69 on May 6, 2020 and February 28 was day 1. The mirror image of the above curve suggests that if it starts to come down soon, we'll eventually get back to zero cases of COVID-19. 

69 + 69 = Day 138. That would be Wednesday, July 15, 2020.

Listen to a little music while you let that sink in.

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