coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

6 March at CoronaStavelot.com

Today's Numbers

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - 6 Mar 2020 at 07h03m13s

 

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Pop - 6 March, 2020 at 07h22m33s

 

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI March 6, 2020 07h22m34s

 

Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, to 0.001289%. The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.

One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 1.29 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends 1

 

Trends 2

Trends #3 : this day only, March 6, to see results more clearly, compared with Feb. 27

Trends 3

Again, in all of the above graphs, "SD" = start date (Feb. 27), and "DD" = data date (today).

 

Results:

(red bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, corrected for the world population on the same day, compared with those of February 27, increased by 19.716%. This is the change in "world prevalence."

(green bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 56.332%.

(blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 0.865% Yesterday this figure was 1.014%.

(yellow bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 19.742%. (Almost the same as when corrected for world population [red bar]).

(purple bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, diminished  by -14.819%.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 2,028 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28. Warning! included in "confirmed cases" are also those who are cured. Those who died as well. This figure suggests that the virus continues to spread.
  • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number.
  • Deaths are few in number, and the death rate remains low (3.439% of confirmed cases die), increasing slightly (0.865%)when compared with that value February 27. This rate of change diminished from that presented yesterday (1.014%).
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (39,580 today), increased 1.91% since yesterday, (38,839).

 

Rates of Decline in Active Cases:

Fun with Numbers - March 6, 2020

"Quick Joe! They're coming. Hide the data!"

 

Does a linear trend line still fit the actual data?

Yes, R² = 0.86963, but not as good a fit as yesterday (R² = 0.94019). The Actively Sick figure calculated from the Johns Hopkins CSSE data, has bumped up 1.9% (39,580).

 

Fun with Numbers - March 6, 2020

 

The logarithmic data fit guys are fighting back ...

The R² value here (R² = 0,92413) is better than the linear fit (R² = 0.86963).

This might suggest that things are starting to move, once again, by factors of 10.

Fun with Numbers - March 6, 2020 - Logarithmic

 

But the best fit today, is to a quadratic or polynomial equation ...

There, the correlation between Day Observed and Actual Activelyy Sick cases is strongest: R² = 0.98411.

Also, the error estimate is quite low: -0.644%

Fun with Numbers - March 6, 2020 - Polynomial

 

But forecasting with polynomial equations can lead to craziness as the "Oops!" values above suggest.

 

    • Q: "What was that?!"
    • Ans: "I don't know, but here it comes again !!"

 

Some quadratic results might look like this ...

Polynomial data characteristicsSo the best thing to say is ...

  • For the data acquired to date, the best descriptive relationship today is mathematically expressed by a polynomial or quadratic equation.
  • Don't use this to try and forecast, since major increases and decreases are quickly suggested.
  • One could chose to simply slide today's data into the top drawer of one's desk and stop looking at it. We are fretting over a 1.908% increase. Sometimes the market goes up, and sometimes it goes down. Present the data. Let others work it over as they chose.
  • For now, stick with the linear relationship, and hope for a better fit tomorrow.

 

Hit me with it

"So what is your prediction?"

"Well, (and very red-faced), yesterday I blurted out that we'd be saying goodbye to that last Active Case of COVID-9 on April 10, 2020. Today, with just a bit more data, I have to amend that to April 18."

April 18 looks to be the best current estimate of COVID-10 Is Over Day.

That's in 44 days inclusive, 1.5 months, 0.12 years.

 

"Hey! You started off this prediction stuff at April 6. What gives?"

"What's 12 days, between friends? Come back tomorrow."

 

Now I'm going to go look out the window, like expert weather forecasters do.

"Tous les jours ne sont pas clairs quand tu es un météorologue."

That translates to: All days are not bright when you're a weatherman.

 

"An Br'er Bear, He Lay Low ..."

 

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06/03/2020
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