coronastavelot.com

Today's Numbers

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

Raw and Derived Data :

Raw and Derived data, as PDF

Results:

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, to 0.001250%. The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.

One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 1.25 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

Trends #3 : this day only, March 5, to see results more clearly, compared with Feb. 27

Results:

(red bar): the confirmed cases of COVID-19, corrected for the world population on the same day, compared with those of February 27, increased by 16.115%. This is the change in "world prevalence."

(green bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 39.503%.

(blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 1.014% Yesterday this figure was 0.70%.

(yellow bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 16.137%. 

(purple bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, diminished  by -16.414%.

Interpretation:

• COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 1,894 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28. Warning! included in "confirmed cases" are also those who are cured. Those who died as well. This figure suggests that the virus continues to spread.
• Those who have recovered continue to increase in number.
• Deaths are few in number, and the death rate remains low (3.444% of confirmed cases die), increasing slightly (1.014%) when compared with that value February 27.
• The number of people actively sick with COVID-19 worldwide (38,839 today), continues to decrease.

Rates of decline in active cases: 

Does a linear trend line still fit the actual data?

Not bad: R² = 0.94019. This is still better than trying to fit the data to a logarithmic curve,

where R² = 0.91796 So again we can say: "94% of the change in Reported Actively Sick with COVID-19, is explained simply by the Observation Day, since the day we began observing on February 27."

Hit me with it

"So what is your prediction?"

"Well, (and slightly red-faced), yesterday I blurted out that we'd be saying goodbye to that last Active Case of COVID-9 on April 6, 2020. Today, with just a bit more data, I have to amend that to April 10."

April 10 looks to be the best current estimate of COVID-10 Is Over Day.

That's in 37 days inclusive, 1.23 months, 0.101 years.

Be tough. Just hang in there. Even a tsunami passes away.

"An Br'er Bear, He Lay Low ..."

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