coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

5 August at 21:50:12 - an important moment

 

Predicting the future of COVID-19 cases and events is treacherous.

I was quite wrong back in March of this year. A clearly downwards trend in reported cases, reversed itself in a very short period of about 10 days. That inversion has not been forgotten.

 

Yet at the present time, I can't hold back from announcing what I think is an important development.

 

It concerns active cases of the COVID-19 illness worldwide.

 

Let me share these graphs and clips from my database.

 

This is the second day in a row that that worldwide figure did not rise further.

 

These data originate at Johns Hopkins CSSE as usual.

 

Actively Ill in the world - 5 August, 2020

 

Here is this same result presented in a gallery of images.

It includes the dashboard at JH CSSE.

 

Conclusions :

  1. When compared with the Case Fatality Ratio on February 27, changes in that value have been trending downwards during the past month or more. Today, that change is a bit above 10% of the value in February. Again, this is not new. The death rate of this disease is diminishing day after day.
  2. For the 2nd day in a row, those actively ill with COVID-19 in the world have now decreased. That's new. Each day since February, this value always increased unremittingly. Yesterday it decreased for the first time. That was new. Today it decreased even further.
  3. As can be seen in the gallery image, which we'll also place here, the magnitude of this change is important:  429 thousand 192 fewer active cases since yesterday. That's a 6.42% reduction in a day.

 

Change in Actively ill since yesterday - August 5, 2020

This determines the following relationship with those who have recovered from COVID-19 :

 

World R to A ratio (1

The ratio of those who have recovered to those actively ill continues to increase (R:A ratio : 1.661)

which means almost 2 people have now recovered for each person still actively ill.

 

Blind optimism should be avoided since the actual number of those actively ill is estimated today at 6 million, 568 thousand, 833. That remains a huge number of COVID-19 active cases in our world.

 

Nevertheless, we will again risk saying here, that today's results merit being underlined, and this date remembered. 

 

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05/08/2020
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