coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

4 June at CoronaStavelot.com

Let's see if we can make sense of this.

Then again ... Why?

 

At the end of today's note, something to listen to.

Then again, maybe to start off, listen to it now.

It's 16 minutes from a Podcast.

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

First, showing deaths

JH CSSE - 4 June, 2020 - CFR

 

This gives a worldwide Case Fatality Ratio of 386,111 / 6,514,359 =  5.927% 

Take that as a marker of severity of this COVID-19 illness. Some countries do better, and some worse.

 

Cheerier note: Recovered cases.

 

JH CSSE - 4 June, 2020 - Recovered

 

2,808,917 / 6,514,359 = 43.12% recovered around the world. Yeah!

 

But notice on both images, in the lower right corner, a graph of Daily Cases for the 188 countries combined that Johns Hopkins CSSE is reporting on. Well, unfortunately, that continues to rise as it moves to the right. 

 

Some comparisosns.

 

Since this all started in February where I am, Here is the CoronStavelot Index (known globally as the CSI), to help put in perspective where we have gotten to on our planet this day ...

 

Lots of numbers on that graphic below ! 

 

In Pink: case data back on February 27.

In yellow: today, June 4, 2020 (I always put the year in case this lasts a decade or so).

In light blue: the % change in various parameters.

 

Let's go through it by the (white on green) numbers.

1.) the % of the world population involved with COVID-19 cases. Less than a tenth of 1%. Think about that. Now place that in the perspective of how the media are "selling" this.

2.) we are day 97 where I am, of tracking these very interesting data.

3.) our start date : 27 February

4.) today's date : 4 June

5.) change in the death rate between the two dates: 73.9% higher now than in February. As we'll see, that increase, followed day after day, is decreasing.

6.) Some little numbers to express ratio's 0.708 person(s) recovered, for each 1 person actively ill. Or the glass half-empty approach: 1.182 persons actively ill, for each person who has recovered from COVID-19. This requires confidence that the actual cases are being diagnosed and reportedly accurately.

7.) A purely ridiculous number: since February 27, the number of actively ill patients around the world (46,466 on that date) has increased 7,044% to today's value of 3,319,331 patients still sick with this.

8.) The goal is to place all this in perspective. Since this began, the world's population has increased by a net 20,722,458 individuals and counting. Even including the 386,111 deaths from COVID-19.

 

CSI - June 4, 2020 - numbered

 

 

And World Population looked like this ...

 

World Population - 4 June, 2020 at 10h44m58s

 

 

Here is a little gallery of graphs that display some of these evolutions in cases:

 

 

Ranking the outcomes from the 27 countries we've been following since end of February seems popular on some days. We'll indicate the country where we are in each case, and its position for each of these variables. The column used to sort, is higjhlighted in yellow on the charts that follow.

 

Prevalance reflects the burden of this disease in each country, since its arrival. Cases par million inhabitants. This number gets added to, each day. It will be summed so that on the last day that the records are archived, will be the highest number. If things go well, that high number will become stable at some point, and no longer increase. But it will never come down. What will come down (one day) is the incidence. 

 

Prevalence, ranked - 4 June, 2020

 

 

Deaths can be further defined or corrected for median age in a country, as well as level of health before COVID-19 arrived, but as a first pass, Case Fatality Ratios given below reemain useful.

 

 

Deaths per million, ranked - June 4, 2020

 

 

Those actively ill per million inhabitants, ranked

 

Actively ill; ranked - June 4, 2020

 

 

 

If those actively ill have changed over time, especially from one country to the next, at a worldwide level, at present, the number of Actively ill continues to increase. The equation associated with the curve below, allows predicting tomorrow's value. But recently, predicted values have lagged a few percentage points below actual results. Today, this error of the estimate is about -5%.

 

Change in Actively iLL - June 4, 2020

 

But before getting too impatient, or losing hope, here's one that we prefer ...

 

A to R ratio and values - 7 days - June 4

When compared with those who are recovering, while active cases lead recovered cases each day, the ratio is heading in the right direction.

 

Or if you prefer to see the glass half-filled, the recovered-to-active-cases ratio continues to improve during the past week..

 

R to A ratio and values - 7 days - June 4

 

As COVID-19 moves around the world, the duration of infection in a country, becomes a key determinant for meaningful comparisons. Here is that duration ranked.

 

 

Months of Infection, ranked - 4 June, 2020

 

 

And how successful have each of these 27 countries been with the time spent facing the virus?

 

For instance, recovery can be ranked in a way that includes this duration. Some countries seem to have made better use of this time with the virus, admittedly a strange way to put that, than others.

Here are the data ranked by '% Recovered per Days of Infection.  Some might say that those at the top of this ranked list are the countries that responded effectively to this challenge. They merit further study.

 

% Recovered per day of infection, ranked - June 4, 2020

 

 

The chart below helps summarize levels of Active illness, Deaths, and Recovered patients in each of these 27 countries.

The goal is to get one's country to green.

A-D-R, June 4, 2020

 

Should be about enough for this day.

 

While cautious optimism is always defensible, at a world level, we are crazy percentage levels above where things were on February 27. 

 

In those countries now on the down side of the hump, re-opening schools and busenesses is anticipated with a mixture of glee and anxiety. Where we are located in Europe, results of such re-openings should be available around June 20th. Fingers are crossed. Explanations from the government of how this reopening will transpire are so complicated, as to be ignored by many.

 

Stay safe.

 

Be personally responsible for your good outcome!

 

 

And have a nice day.  We will make it through.

 

 

But before you go, have a listen to what's below.

These are of course difficult times, filled with uncertainty.

Is your things to do list simply on hold?

Does nothing on it seem important enough to simply begin?

Are you just waiting for "the big one" to arrive, hopefully good, and not bad, ... but just waiting?

At present, accept that little successes are huge accomplishments. 

Clear off your desk.

Sort through that pile of stuff in the corner of the garage.

Take a tiny step, take a breath, take another.

 

Have a listen ...

 

It's an episode from a podcast that comes from here.

 

 

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Yesterday in Belgium (in French, but lots of graphic data) >>>>>>

 

 

 

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04/06/2020
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