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3 April at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

 

(ce même article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

JH CSSE - 3 APril

 

181 countries of the world, sampled by Johns Hopkins CSSE this morning.

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population - April 3, 2020 at 08h22m58s

 

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - APril 3, 2020

 

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

 

Results

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.012271%, to today's value of 0.013303%. That's an 8.410% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday that increase was 8.988%. The day before : 9.354%%. The day before that : 8.688% (Looks like, at a global level, that this the start of reduced prevalence !)
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 13.30 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." An increase since yesterday. That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Apr 3

Trends 1 - 3 April, 2020

Trends #2

Trends 2 - 3 April, 2020

 

 

Trends #3

In the last week ... 

Trends 2wk - 3 April, 2020

Trends #4

Today ...

 

Trends 3 - 3 April, 2020

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 1,137.04%. Yesterday's value: 1,397.87%. The day before: 1,276.23%  (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February, but a slower rate of increase).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 1,137,04%. Yesterday's value: 1,041.09%. The day before: 946,91% This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thos who have died and recovered from their illness).  It is an answer to the question: "Just how much of this disease have we had since the start?"
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 53.42% Yesterday this figure was lower at 47.85%. The day before : 44.40%
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -47.96%, this not much different from yesterday's value of -47.85%, and the value the day before, -48.21%. New active cases are outpacing the rate of recovery, but people are still recovering.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 25,951 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and more than the 24,440 new cases per day yesterday. Note! This includes those who have recovered and those who died.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today: 211,775, Yesterday : 194,311 Feb 27 : 32,897)  If the above value for rate of Recovery is negative (-47.96%), it reflects a rate lower than on Feb. 27, since the number of actively ill is increasing rapidly at present. But COVID-19 patients are continuing to recover worldwide.
  • Death rate worldwide is at 5.230% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%, and yesterday's value of 5.040%. That variable increased 3.77% since yesterday, and increased 47.85% since Feb 27. This is an overall figure for mortality worldwide from COVID-19, and varies greatly from one country to the next. It currently remains rather stable, increasing very slightly each day.
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (751,466 today), increased 7.97% since yesterday, (696,000). Yesterday this increase was 8.839%, and the day before was 9.83%. Two days ago: 8.299%. This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 751,466 Actively Sick today, that's 1,517% above the value on Feb. 27, (16.17 times that value) more than a one logarithm increase in the interval.

 

Change in number of Active Cases 

Change in Actively SIck - 3 April, 2020

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now increased more than 1 log  (16.2x) to 1,517% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 751,466 worldwide. The equation predicts slightly more for this day: 771,209. This is 19,743 ABOVE the actual value. So the total of actively ill worldwide, continues to increase, but more slowly than predicted. 
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.88% of the time) with an error in this estimate of 2.627%, slightly above actual cases. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 843,847 tomorrow.
  • Yesterday's prediction for today (782,130), was 4,1% above that reported value today (751,466). The curve is beginning to overestimate those Actively Sick because their rate of appearance is slowing.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, ((751,466) now 705,000 above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events 36 days ago. Yesterday, this was 649,534 above that previous level used as a baseline reference.

 

Globally, more people became sick with COVID-19 once again since yesterday. BUT the fact that the predicted value remains in advance of actual data, based on its positive % error, invokes a possibility of reduction in the rate of increase. It would be very comforting to be approaching the inflection point, that point where values begin to decrease. This appears more possible on this day.

 

Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 24 countries

All values are current as of this morning, Friday, April 3, 2020 at 08:46AM.

Prevalence - 3 April, 2020

Above prevalences, ranked (24 countries)

Presented today with the number of Days of Infection.

This value is simply [Today's Date - Date of First Reported Case of COVID-19], in each country.

 

Prevalence, ranked - 3 April, 2020

Sorted by Days of Infection. 

Prevalence, with Days of Infection, ranked - 3 April, 2020

 

 

Most will recover. If not soon, eventually

Recovered - 3 April, 2020

 

Unfortunately, some are still dying of COVID-19.

Deaths - 3 April, 2020

With a death rate globally; that continues to creep up ever so slightly but constantly. Some of this may be do to delayed reporting of deaths. It happens in this country. Probably happens in most.

 

Here are the raw data for Deaths in these 24 countries

Deaths - Raw Data - 3 April

Deaths per million population - 3 April, 2020

 

 

Actively Sick with COVID-19 (est. 79.6% mild; 13.6% severe; 4.9% critical), 24 countries 

Actively Sick - 3 April, 2020

 Here, for comparison, 22 March ...

Compare: South Korea, Finland, Denmark, for instance. 

Actively Ill - 22 March

 

 

 

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries : 

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
  13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.
  14. Bill collectors seem much less active.
  15. There are moments of mental lucidity. For example: I had already lived through some crappy periods in my life, but I think this one takes the cake.
  16. Thankful to not have to be on the front lines as this approaches. Praying for those who are.
  17. Centering : spending more time doing things that should make a difference. Less counting.
  18. "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
  19. Distance may separate me physically from my family. But we are constantly with each other. That can never be confined.
  20. Grateful for all those who sell and deliver items purchased online. It's still possible. (But wipe the box with Clorox before opening! (Didn't use to do that) ...
  21. An increase in the numbers of moments of absolute silence.
  22. Math can be tedious. A times very revealing. And that's a positive.

 

 

 

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03/04/2020
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