coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

27 April at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(ce même article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

(Remember to click on the above link to see the parameters they've added. "Magnifique!)

JH CSSE - 27 April, 2020 at 07h31m20s

185 countries of the world, sampled by Johns Hopkins CSSE this morning.

 

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population - 27 April at 08h22m44s

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - April 27

 

 

 Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from five days ago, 0.033546%, to today's value of 0.038869%. That's a 15.87% increase in prevalance (= cases per million pop.), over five days. Not to panic. That's a 3.174% increase in prevalence around the world per day. A week ago: 3.80%.  Eight days ago : 3.97%. The driver is easing up on the gas pedal. 'Bout time the maniac got the message.
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 38.9 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." An increase since yesterday. That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population. That's not many of the people walking around on our planet. Yet, News & Media play it out for all its worth. Read a good book instead.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Apr 27

 

Trends 1 - April 27, 2020

Yes, I know. It's still heading up. Imagining that the top of the curve is starting to bend and will soon come crashing down, is a nice passtime. I engage in this each day. 

 

Trends #2

Trends 2 - April 27, 2020

One day, not soon, this will look different than the Trends #1 graph.

 

Trends #3

In the last week ...

 

Trends 2wk - April 27, 2020

Trends #4

Today ...

 

Trends 3 - April 27, 2020

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 3,982%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 3,517%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thosewho have died and recovered from their illness).  It is an answer to the question: "Just how much of this disease have we had since the start?"
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 103.88%. 
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -27.01%  That's a smaller decrease. Confused? April 22, that was -33.18%. April 22:  -36.16%. Negative values are always a little harder to understand. The more it approaches and passes 0, the better.  On February 27, 40% of those who had become infected with COVID-19, had recovered. Today April 27, 29.22% of those infected have recovered. On April 22, 26.75%.  April 21: 25.56%. New cases are still outpacing a consistent but slow recovery.

 

Let's look more closely at the change in Death Rates from COVID-19 since Feb 27.

("OK! That sounds like lots of fun!")

 

Just over the last week, perhaps a key point was arrived at. Look below:

Change in Death Rates since Feb 27 - April 27, 2020

 

See that? 

Of course you did. Because you're not a person to just scroll quickly over all these graphs and words.

 

You realize fully well, that each word here is precious. Written gold.

 

The change in mortality was increasing, and on April 24, it may have reached a peak (107% change since that value on Feb 27). Hopefully today's value of 103.9% augurs good things to come. 

"OK. Great! But how long will we have to wait?"

Well, Just about 2 months from when we began noticing COVID-19 creeping around our world, things may now be beginning (at a worldwide level; not necessarily where you are) to improve. So, (watch out!) let us propose here, 2 months for this elevator to get back down to the ground floor.

 

What is this like?

 

You're at a cocktail party. (Remember those?)

The guy next to you is standing on your foot. He has been for a while, and pretty forcefully.

 

"Excuse me. Could you get off my damn foot?"

"Well, no. I just can't do that yet. But I can ease up a bit."

"Great. That would be very nice. And thank you."

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 is still increasing throughout the world, but at a slower rate
  • Deaths from COVID-19 remain an infrequent outcome, and may have just begun to increase more slowly since April 24.
  • Recovery from COVID-19 is gradual but constant. 868,480 people who had it, have now recovered.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in Actively ILL - 27 April, 2020

 

Interpretation

With statistical mumbo-jumbo included ...

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now increased (40.8 times) to 3,982% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 1,896,798 worldwide. The equation predicts slightly more for this day: 1,923,080. This is 26,282 ABOVE the actual value. On April 22, 50,519 ABOVE the actual value. So the total of actively ill worldwide, continues to increase. The equation is showing a tighter fit with the actual data. It's more accurate. Aren't you happy about that? Of course you are. 
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.651% of the time) with an error in this estimate of 1.386%, above actual cases.
  • If nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 1,962,233 tomorrow. Closing in on 2 million people in the world who don't feel particularly well.
  • Notice also that the coefficient for the powerful x³ variable (the first in the equation), remains negative (-14.77)  April 22: -12.156x³. April 20: -10.061x³. The equation is doing its best to start pulling things down.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

  • The fit of the equation to the actual data, continues to improve. (It predicted well before; now even better. "Good job equation!" "Thanks boss..."
  • At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide, unfortuneately, continue to increase in number.
  • The rate of increase is currently slowing day by day. On April 14 the equation was underestimating the actual. Since then it continues to overestimate, but very slightly (about 1%).

 

Globally, more people became sick with COVID-19 once again since yesterday, but at a slower rate. 

It would be very nice to be able to write something different. Sooner the better.

 

 

Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 25 countries

All values are current as of this afternoon, Monday, April 27, 2020 at 12:08PM.

 

Prevalence - April 27

 

Interpretation:

When reviewing these 25 countries, the COVID-19 illness has been quite present. Especially in countries like Spain, Belgium, Ireland, and Switzerland.

 

The above prevalences, ranked (25 countries)

Presence of the disease in each of these 25 countries that we have been following.

Answers the question:

"Just how much of this illness have they had in these countries per million inhabitants?"

 

Prevalence, ranked - April 27

 

 

Presented with and sorted by number of Days of Infection

Answers: "Since this illness arrived in a country, how long has it been present?"

 

The order of countries here won't change, since the day the virus arrived in each country is fixed (unless someone finds an earlier case than the current "first case.") 

 

Prevalence, ranked by Days of Infetion - April 27

 

% who have Recovered per Day of Infection in the country

The higher on the list, the better the outcome from this illness. 

Belgium slipped down one place since last presented on April 22.

The countries higher on the list, should be studied for what they did right  ro get to more people recovered from COVID-19 ...

 

Prevalence, ranked by Recovered per mill per D of Inf - April 27

 

 

Deaths per million inhabitants in these 25 countries, followed since Feb 27.

Always a little harder to live with, when viewed from our current vantage point.

 

Prevalence, ranked by Deaths per mill - April 27

 

 

So to get to fewer Deaths and more Recovered patients, what's needed?

 

Here's one suggestion ...

 

Prevalence, ranked by Tests done per Confirmed Case - April 27

 

To find cases of this infectious illness, and get them isolated from the rest of the uninfected population, what's needed? In Taiwan, to identify and confirm 1 case, they did 122 tests. In Germany, 11 tests done per case identified. Angela Merkel just said that since they plan to loosen the confinement orders just a bit, they plan to do even more tests.

 

 In Belgium, to find the next case, they are doing 4 tests.

 

Maybe that's important.

 

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Most will recover. If not soon, eventually.

Recovered - April 27

This Recovery is increasing nicely in the world. Belgium (23%) is well below the mean.

 

Unfortunately, some are still dying of COVID-19.

 

Died - April 27

 

The raw data for Deaths in these 25 countries

The outcome at present in the States is tragic. Sad.

"Yes. But they have so many more people."

Still very sad.

Deaths, Raw Data - April 27

 

 

Deaths per million inhabitants

Belgium remains out in the lead. And very soon, "déconfinement" (unconfinement) will be turned loose.

 

(4 May : all one can do is hope that the populace will remain more reasonable than its government).

Deaths per million population - April 27

 

Actively Sick with COVID-19  (est. 79.6% mild; 13.6% severe; 4.9% critical), 25 countries 

Of all those in the world who have been reported as testing positive for this virus,

52%% are still Actively ILL.  April 22, 57% and April 21, had been 62%.

That's a lot of sick people, but headed in the right direction.

 

Actively ILL - April 27

 

"Q : Say. Could you get all that together on a single graphic?"

      Ans. "Why sure ..."

 

Below, 1 column for each country.

Recovered (green); Died (blue); Still sick (Red)

We're trying to get to green ...

 

A-D-R - April 27, 2020

 

Compare Belgium with USA, but more importantly, with China, Switzerland, Germany, South Korea.

They are the strong "greening of COVID-19" countries. 

 

What did they do right? What are Portugal and the Netherlands ("herd immunity") doing wrong?

 

Lots of Red + Blue means it's not yet time to take off your mask when you go to the store. 

Been tested yet? (Recall that 17 to 19% of those infected, have no symptoms).

 

------------

 

Tests per million inhabitants - April 27, 2020

What, finally, makes more tests possible?  Perhaps a firm decision, matched by action, to do more tests.

 

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Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries : 

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem, play some music.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, (57%) is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
  13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.
  14. Bill collectors seem much less active.
  15. There are moments of mental lucidity. For example: I had already lived through some crappy periods in my life, but I think this one takes the cake.
  16. Thankful to not have to be on the front lines as this approaches. Praying for those who are.
  17. Centering : spending more time doing things that should make a difference. Less counting.
  18. "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
  19. Distance may separate me physically from my family. But we are constantly with each other. That can never be confined.
  20. Grateful for all those who sell and deliver items purchased online. It's still possible. (But wipe the box with Clorox before opening! (Didn't use to do that) ...
  21. An increase in the numbers of moments of absolute silence.
  22. Math can be tedious. A times very revealing. And that's a positive.
  23. Sleeping. Solid as a rock.
  24. There seems to be an increased ability to listen. To others, but also to oneself.
  25. Land mines do not usually go off by themselves. You have to step on them. Stay isolated !
  26. Essential items are recognized more easily.
  27. Imagine if one day somebody appears and says: "You know, all this confinement stuff was not really necessary. All you had to do was ... " Couldn't you just punch a guy like that in the face?
  28. Returning to things ignored for too long (working in the quiet and smells of the greenhouse).
  29. Identifying more clearly, one's limits of patience.
  30. Actually comforted by being able to get away from crowds.
  31. Turning correct conclusions into correct action, and sometimes, correct non-action.
  32. Being able to identify the lemmings more clearly by their self-interests.
  33. "The brave men who fought here, have consecrated it far beyond our poor power to add or detract."
  34. It took distancing, to help us find more closeness to others. More similarities. Fewer differences.
  35. Much more time to rediscover things set aside long ago. (Example: The Beatle's White Album).
  36. Very grateful for indoor plumbing.
  37. Ease up. Taking a day off doesn't mean the world won't be there tomorrow.
  38. Some days, anxiety will creep up on you. When things are getting raw, it's that. Recognize it. And take that decision you've been putting off. Turn it into action. 

 

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Miss choir rehearsals? Sing with our little group.

But watch out for the gong ...

 

 

 

Yesterday's results in Belgium (in French) >>>>>

 

 

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27/04/2020
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