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26 March at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

 

(ce même article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - March 26, 2020

175 countries of the world, sampled by Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

World Pop - March 26, 2020

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - March 26, 2020

 

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.005539%, to today's value of 0.006180%. That's an 11.57% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday that increase was 10.86%. The day before : 12.47%.
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 6.18 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." An increase since yesterday. That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Mar 26

 

Trends 1 - 26 March

Trends #2

Trends 2 - 26 March

Trends #3

In the last week ...Trends 2wk - 26 March

Trends #4

Today ...

Trends 3 - 26 March

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 622.89%. Yesterday's value: 536.22%. The day before: 466.51%  (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February, and more people sick than yesterday).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 474.11%. Yesterday's value: 414.59%. The day before: 364.10% This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thos who have died and recovered from their illness).
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 32.40% Yesterday this figure was lower at 31.16%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -39.23%, this below yesterday's value of -35.91%, and the value the day before, -33.367%. New active cases are outpacing the rate of recovery, but people are still recovering.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 13,925 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and more than the 11,517 new cases per day, yesterday. Note! This includes those who have recovered and those who died.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today: 114,870, Yesterday : 108,578 Feb 27 : 32,897)  If the above value for rate of Recovery is negative (-39.23%), it reflects a rate lower than on Feb. 27, since the number of actively ill is increasing rapidly at present. But COVID-19 patients are continuing to recover worldwide.
  • Death rate worldwide is at 4.514% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%, and yesterday's value of 4.471%. That variable increased 0.962% since yesterday, and increased 32.40% since Feb 27. Again, this is an overall figure, and varies greatly from one country to the next. 
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (335,898 today), increased 12.31% since yesterday, (295,624). Yesterday this increase was 13.62%, and the day before was 16.62%. This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 335,898 Actively Sick today, that's 622.89% above the value on Feb. 27, (7.23 times that value) more than septupling in the interval.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in Actively Sick - 26 March, 2020

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now more than septupled (7.2x) to 623% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 335,898 worldwide. The equation predicts slightly fewer for this day: 334,894. This is 1,004 below the actual value. So the total of actively ill worldwide, is increasing slightly faster than predicted. 
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.92% of the time) with an error in this estimate of -0.299%, slightly below actual cases. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 377,579 tomorrow.
  •  

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, ((335,898) now 289,432 above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events 28 days ago.

 

More people became sick with COVID-19 once again since yesterday. It is what it is.

 

 

Still Out of the Bottle

 

 

Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 24 countries

All values are current as of this morning, Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 08:49AM

Prevalence - 26 March

Above prevalences, ranked

Prevalences, ranked - 26 March, 2020

Most will recover. If not soon, eventually

Recovered - 26 March, 2020

Unfortuantely, some are still dying of COVID-19.

Deaths - 26 March

Actively Sick with COVID-19 (79.6% mild; 13.6% severe; 4.9% critical), 24 countries.

Actively Sick - 26 March

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries :

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
  13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.

14. Bill collectors seem much less active.

 

-------------

 

Why was pandemic preparedness not high enough on our things-to-do lists?

 

Here is what Bill Gates was saying in 2015, before that date, and many times since then.

 

 

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26/03/2020
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