coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

25 March at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

 

(ce même article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - March 25, 2020 at 06h52m46s

170 countries of the world, sampled by Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

 

World Population - March 25, 2020 at 07h22m35s

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - March 25, 2020

 

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.004996%, to today's value of 0.005539%. That's a 10.86% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday that increase was 12.47%.
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 5.00 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." Same as yesterday. That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Mar 25

Trends 1 - Mar 25

Trends #2

Trends 2 - Mar 25

Trends #3

In the last week ...

Trends 2wk - Mar 25

 

Trends #4

Today ...

Trends 3 - Mar 25

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 536.22%. Yesterday's value: 466.51%. The day before: 385.77%  (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February, and more people sick than yesterday).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 414.59%. Yesterday's value: 364.10%. The day before: 312.62% This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thos who have died and recovered from their illness).
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 31.16% Yesterday this figure was lower at 27.29%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -35.91%, below yesterday's value of -33.367%, and the value the day before, -27.239%. New active cases are outpacing the rate of recovery, but people are still recovering.

 

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 12,628 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and more than the 11,517 new cases per day, yesterday. Note! This includes those who have recovered and those who died.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today: 108,578, Yesterday : 101,806 Feb 27 : 32,897)  If the above value for rate of Recovery is negative (-35.91%), it reflects a rate lower than on Feb. 27, since the number of actively ill is increasing rapidly at present. But COVID-19 patients are continuing to recover worldwide.
  • Death rate worldwide is at 4.471% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%, and yesterday's value of 4.339%. That variable increased 3.04% since yesterday, (0.92%) and increased 27.28% since Feb 27. Again, this is an overall figure, and varies greatly from one country to the next. 
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (295,624 today), increased 12.31% since yesterday, (263,233). Yesterday this increase was 16.62%, and the day before was 11.82%. This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 263,233 Actively Sick today, that's 536.2% above the value on Feb. 27, (6.36 times that value) more than sextupling in the interval.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in those Actively Sick - 25 March, 2020

 

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now more than sextupled (6.4x) to 536% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 295,624 worldwide. The equation predicts slightly for this day: 295,345. This is 279 below the actual value. So the total of actively ill worldwide, is increasing very slightly faster than predicted. 
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.89% of the time) with an error in this estimate of -0.095%, slightly below actual cases. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 334,135 tomorrow.
  •  

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, ((295,624) now 249,158 above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events 27 days ago.

 

More people became sick with COVID-19 once again since yesterday.

 

 

Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 24 countries

All values are current as of this morning, Wednesday, March 25, 2020 at 08:41AM

 

Prevalence - March 25

Most will recover. If not soon, eventually

Recovered - March 25

Unfortuantely, some are still dying of COVID-19.

Deaths - 25 March

Actively Sick with COVID-19 (79.6% mild; 13.6% severe; 4.9% critical), 24 countries.

Actively Sick - 25 March

 

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries :

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.

 

 

If you haven't seen our video today, have a look.

After an introduction in French, then English, it presents the time line and order of countries where COVID-19 began and developed. From January 22nd to yesterday, March 24. It may even help you relax.

 

 

 

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25/03/2020
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