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23 March at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(ce même article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - March 23, 2020

167 countries of the world, sample by Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World population - March 23

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - March 23

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.004023%, to today's value of 0.004442%. That's a 10.42% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday that increase was 25.64%.
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 4.44 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Mar 23

Trends 1 - March 23

Trends #2Trends 2- March 23

Trends #3

In the last week ...

Trends 2wk- March 23

Trends #4

Today ...

Trends 3- March 23

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 385.77%. Yesterday's value: 342.42%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February, and more people sick than yesterday).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 312.62%. Yesterday's value: 273.74%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thos who have died and recovered from their illness).
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 27.15% Yesterday this figure was lower at 24.57%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -27.239%, less than yesterday's value of -24.916%, and the value the day before, -19.971%. New active cases are outpacing the rate of recovery, but people are still recovering.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 10.284 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and more than the 9,380 new cases per day, yesterday. Note! This includes those who have recovered and those who died.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today: 98,834, Yesterday : 92,375 Feb 27 : 32,897)  If the above value for rate of Recovery is negative (-27.239), it reflects a rate lower than on Feb. 27, since the number of actively ill is increasing rapidly at present. But COVID-19 patients are continuing to recover worldwide.
  • Death rate worldwide is at 4.335% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%, and yesterday's value of 4.247%. That variable increased 2.07% since yesterday, (2.61%) and increased 27.15% since Feb 27. Again, this is an overall figure, and varies greatly from one country to the next.
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (225,719 today), increased 11.82% since yesterday, (201,856). Yesterday this increase was 14.84%, and the day before was 18.40%. There is starting to appear some diminution in this rate of change. These sequential rates of increase may be showing the start of a decrease in active cases at this time, worldwide. This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 225,719 Actively Sick today, that's 385,772% above the value on Feb. 27, (4.86 times that value) almost quintupling in the interval.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in Curently Actively Sick - March 23, 2020

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now almost quintupled (4.9x) to 386% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 225,719 worldwide. The equation predicts slightly for this day: 225,976.
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.8% of the time) with an error in this estimate of 0,114%, very slightly above actual cases. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 257,121 tomorrow.
  • Yesterday, (see result in yesterday's article) the % error was -1.875% below reported value, based on yesterday's equation.  Today, % error is 0,114%, a more accurate prediction, slightly above the reported value.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, ((225,719) now 179,253 above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events 26 days ago.

 

More people became sick with COVID-19 once again since yesterday. Nevertheless, the rate of rise in this increase may be slowing. Two days ago, an increase of 18.4%, yesterday 14.8% and today 11.8%.

 

Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 24 countries

"What about China? What about China?"  - so I added China to the 23 previously sampled.

 

Prevalence - 23 March

All values are current as of this morning, Monday, March 23, 2020.

 

Most will recover. If not soon, eventually

It is a hopeful sign, that China where this began, now leads the world in Recovery.


Recovered - 23 March

 

Yes, unfortuantely, some are still dying of COVID-19.

Died - 23 March

Those Actively Sick with COVID-19 (79.6% mild; 13.6% severe; 4.9% critical), in these 24 countries.

Actively Sick - 23 March

 

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries :

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).

 

 

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23/03/2020
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