coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

22 May at CoronaStavelot.com

So here we are! 

Back again! After spending so much time with our nose in Belgium's little problems.

Here was all of that today, but it's in French. Are these Belgians ever gonna get there act together?

Check back in a week, but I'm trembling inside.

 

Anyway. The World! Our World!

Today, though making the usual start, we'll try to include a larger perspective.

Sort of a "Where are we in all of this?" and "So now, what are we gonna do tomorrow?!"

 

We're off ...

But perhaps we have been for years.

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - Deaths - May 23 at 8h23m41s

188 countries that they're following now. But they've moved things around a bit. Above, with today's total deaths in white.

 

Look! Here below in green are those who have recovered from this nasty illness ...

 

JH CSSE - Recovered - May 23 at 8h23m41s

 

2 million, fifty-eight thousand, five hundred eighty-one folks feeling better and "just chillin" as youths like to say.

 

 

World Population (mustn't forget that) :

 

World Population - May 23, 2020 at 09h10m05s

 

 

Beautiful. Now let's add a little perspective, as promissed.

 

First, the CoronaStavelot Index page below as usual.

Gotta have those numbers, or I'll get a little nervous ...

Again, in pink on the left, the values on Feb. 27. 

And in yellow, today's May 23 values.

And in light blue, the change between the two dates. It's in blue especially that you'll find the crazy numbers.

Like, an increase in the number of Actively ill between the two dates of 5 963%. Crazy!

Forget about it!

 

CSI (the CoronaStavelot Index)- May 23, 2020

 

So instead, think about this ...

From the top of the page:

If one travelled around the world (don't do it!) and began to count, one would find that 0.068146% of the world's population, is currently involved with COVID-19.

A little help with that?  OK. Any percentage that is less than 0.1% ain't very much of anything.

 

% of WOrld Population involved with COVID-19 - May 23, 2020

 

Now in the meantime, look at this at the bottom of our same CSI report ...

 

Point number 1 in green : Total Deaths counted so far since this began, from COVID-19 : 338,249.

Sure it's a lot. Sure it's sad. Sure it's what has scared everybody in the world to death (nice choice of words). Sure. Most people who get a toothache don't have fun, but they do not die.

 

Let's get some more perspective on this.

At little green number 2 below, is the change in World Population since we got out our calculator on February 27: 18 million, 173 thousand, 499 humans have been added to our world. That's a net figure. Don't start subtracting the deaths, nor adding the births. It's already been done for you.

 

That's 211 thousand 320 humans added per day, net. 

338,249 divided by 211,320 = 1.60 and change. 

So it will take 1.6 days to replace the part of the population that has died of COVID-19.

 

Now of course, "replace" is a bad choice. Many of the deceased, perhaps most, were simply irreplaceable to someone. So its's still sad. It's still scary. But it's not most people in the world, even if your city or State is hard hit.

 

COVID-19 & World Population events compared - May 23, 2020

 

But for me personally, I feel a bit calmer.

 

How about you?

 

Here's how things have moved over time.

Deaths and those Recovered are also here below, tiny dots at the bottom of the graph.

 

Trends 1 - May 23, 2020

And we could hone in a bit like this ...

 

Trends 2 wk - May 23, 2020

 

Or perhaps just today, like this :

 

Trends 3 - May 23, 2020

 

Or a look at those Actively ill to see how their numbers have been changing.

 

Here's this graph. You may have seen it before. 

 

Change in Actively ill - May 23, 2020

 

 

And whether one uses the predicted or actual numbers, which are still pretty close,

the message today is that those in the world who are sick with COVID-19, are still increasing in number.

Simple as that.

 

But let's skip the numbers and how they have changed.

 

We have to accept that easily finding the disease in our world, and those still sick with it, remains "the big picture."

 

----------

 

OK. But do I have anything on my computer, in a secret folder perhaps, that could just make us all feel better right now?

 

How about this?

Trends 4 deaths, 90 days - change from Feb 27 - May 23, 2020

What is that?

Well it's the change in the daily death rate (here I go with deaths again) since February 27.

Why would anything related to deaths, help us feel better? Hang on a second.

The graph shows the last 90 days. 

And I don't know about you, but I kinda see a little bump up around May 2, and then a little sliding down since.

Don't get too excited.

Here's a mandatory closer look, with some mandatory numbers.

 

Trends 4 deaths, 7 days - change from Feb 27 - May 23, 2020

On 16 May death rate numbers were still 98.7% higher than those on February 27. 

But today, that has day by day slid down to 90.3%

 

"So?"

Are people still losing the battle to COVID-19 around the world?  Yes.

But something is easing up on the gas pedal, and that change in rate compared with Feb 27 is now diminishing. 

 

Take a deep breath.

 

-------

 

Let me hit you with an even nicer finding ...

The goal of all this case counting and therapy, and medicines and care, and social distancing, and your chapped hands, and all the rest, is to get people who have been sick, back into shape. We can call that cured. Here we call it Recovered. (An aside for chapped hands: get Ocean Potion moisturizing Aloe Lotion on Amazon. Only 9 left. They don't ship to Belgium because we're all Communists who nevertheless voted against Trump). 

 

And those who are still sick, well, they're the army of the Actively ill. And I feel for them, but don't want to volunteer to be in that army, so I'm still laying pretty low. I'd lay a little lower, but the buttons on my shirt get in the way as I crawl through the trenches here.

 

So for each Recovered person, how many Actively ill are there?

 

Have a look below, and a bit below that, I'll explain.

Trends 5 - A to R ratio 60 days - May 23, 2020

 

  1. The blue line are those still sick, the Actively ILL. Notice that the line is still sloping up towards the right, so goll durn it, they are still increasing.
  2. The green line are those who feel better now. They're the Recovered. And they too are increasing.
  3. The red curve is a ratio. "How much X do I get for each Y," or something like that. It went up, then at day number 33 or so since February 27, it started down. It's still going down. It answers the question (I just knew you had a quesion): "For each person that recovers, how many people are still sick?"

 

But wait.

Let's make this even better. Let's turn that around. Let's turn our ratio upside down.

"For each person that is Activeky ill, how many Recovered are marching around?"

 

Here it is :

 

Trends 6 - R to A ratio 60 days - May 23, 2020

  1. Here the still sick are in red
  2. The recovered are in blue
  3. The ratio between the two is in green, but covered by a gold star at each point.

 

"So?"

  1. So the ratio bottomed out on day 33 or so, and has been rising since. 
  2. But also notice, very important, and kinda sad, for each still sick person we don't yet have 1 Recovered person. Not a single one. No, we have about 0.7 of a person. But don't worry! It's consistently moving in the right direction.

 

Here's that closer look with the numbers that you were begging for :

 

Trends 6 - R to A ratio last 8 days - May 23, 2020

 

Now I don't know what happened at Johns Hopkins with their numbers 4 days ago, but ignore that.

 

Today there were 2,058,581 Recovered, and 2,817,161 Active;y ill. And that's a ratio of R to A of  0,7307289 cured person per 1 sick person.

 

OK, I'm excited. 

Are you excited?

And yes, I know that 0.7307289 is not yet one intact person.

 

Patience.

 

---------

 

I can hear you already, so I'm putting my gloved fingers in my ears ...

"I've been patient. All I've been is patient!

And just how much longer is this all going to last?

Not just your article here, but this whole virus schmiryus COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 thing, or whatever the hell you want to call it.

Sick of it! Got that?!

Just damn sick of it!!"

 

After taking a deep breath in through my nose, and out through my mouth ...

Let's use a graph that you just saw.

 

Trends 1 - May 23, 2020

The daily changes are so bunched up over time that you can't even see the numbers anymore.

 

  1. Notice at the bottom on the left, a date of 28 February, 2020. And on the right, 23 May, 2020.
  2. Notice how smoothly that curve rises up over time.
  3. Notice that we can't even tell if it's about to change its mind and start back down, or just keep rising, which we all hope is not the case not or we'll all start drinking heavily and maybe even smoking.
  4. Notice at the bottom, almost invisible, teeny tiny data points for death rates and % recovered.
  5. Notice the more visible tall bars presenting the daily change in the total cases of this illness world wide, and also a bar for these daily total cases, corrected for world population the same day (not very different. If I was a bit less invested, I would just can that column).

 

 

So although it's not on the graph, why would such a nice process (actually not nice at all) just suddenly come crashing down to the baseline tomorrow or over the next week or 10 days?

 

That would mean :

  1. The virus hasn't found anybody new to infect. Everybody it meets was already infected, or wearing a mask, has stopped breathing anyway, lives in a bubble, and only brushes her teeth with Clorox, got divorced, the guy left, and she's living alone on a mountain, wearing gloves.
  2. Nobody who is infected (and knows it or not, whether sick or not), infects someone who is healthy ever again. Never again. Not even one last time for the hell of it.
  3. The virus has mutated and is actually now a teeny tiney plain M&M, though still sugar coated. 
  4. Epidemiologists just stop counting the cases like beans in a jar, and so the numbers disappear, and we all forget about this and, each and together live happily ever after.
  5. A 100% perfect cure is discovered (no side effects, always works, given out free, and Pfizer has already made 100 time more than the world requires, and it works in a couple of hours to prevent and cure this viral disease).
  6. A rhesus monkey gets out of his cage in a lab, does a little bench work, discovers the 100% effective vaccine, and runs around the world with a dart gun, vaccinating everyone, until he is stopped and caged by a company still selling chloroquine sulfate like hot cakes.

 

OK, I'll stop now.

I think the data suggest (as researchers like to start most sentences), that it ain't over yet.

 

So what's a guy to do?

 

Everything that we have learned and more.

 

The everything is all the protective stuff, garb, distancing, and cautious behavior.

In the past, it wa called an Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder. Now, it's just become routine.

Just keep it up. Obsess away.

Don't let the media, or the government, nor anybody else, talk you down from all that just yet.

Neighbors laughing at you a bit since last weekend? Let 'em. Check their status in 12 days and you might be reassured about your choices and continued unflinching dedication.

 

Don't listen to anybody who's talking "second wave" right now. This is still the first wave and the graph above suggests that it has yet to pass. Whatever wave it decides to be, just stay away from it.

 

Everything that we have learned and more.

 

The "and more" means that in fact, for the overwhelmingly large majority, life goes on.

So unwind your mainspring just a turn or two.

 

Go back to doing those old items on your things-to-do list, but with continued caution.

Pay a few bills ("Ugh!")

 

Try your hand at something. Get out that old guitar, or violin, or harmonica and your "Harmonica for Dummies" paperback.

Do one simple exercise each day.

Build yourself a standing desk to work at your computer, and get a foot pad (Amazon) so your feet don't ache.

Go out into your garden (bring your mask along if a neighbor walks up), and plant a few seeds in some dirt. It's still early. And if nothing grows at all or the birds eat the seeds, you will relax and have fun.

 

Lie down on your bed about 2PM each day. Breath in slowly and gently through your nose. Hold it for a count of 4. Breathe out even more slowly through your mouth. Count to 4. Repeat for 12 minutes. If you fall asleep , that's OK. 2PM just not possible? Find another time.

 

If you're anxious and can't sleep, try some natural stuff: 2 Lemon Balm (mélisse) capsules at 7 PM, and two Passionflower (Passiflore) capsules at 9PM (VitaCost.com). Then snooze like a baby, and dream a little dream for me. 

 

Re-connect with family and friends in a safe way. (Tried ZOOM yet?)

 

No one in our lifetimes has lived through this before.  No one. Not one.

This has its own beat. It is different from polio and Ebola.

 

So faced with that, in one way, you are alone, even if others can point towards a path.

So explore this path which is yours, in your way. Safely. Calmly. And oh yes, one more thing...

 

When it gets to be too much, open a window, or go down next to the furnace in the basement, and scream your guts out, using profanity at will. Don't strike the furnace or window with a bat.

 

"OK, OK. But when do you think this is going to be over?!"

I don't know.

 

It's progression and regression depend greatly on how people behave.

How fed up they have become or soon get to be. Then like lemmings, they will begin to engage in random "just what the hell" actions to try to feel better.

How blind they can be to reality, is motivated by this reality, which has them scared to death.

They're like a dog in a cage, waiting to board an airplane with other baggage.

Such people might benefit from a daily Doggie Downer or two.

 

OK you want a date?

 

The graph above for the change in death rates, took 9 weeks from start to peak.

It's been sliding down for two weeks. So 7 to 9 weeks from now, if all goes well and we can see it correctly in the Looking Glass. That gives July 11 or July 25.

 

July 25, things will be much better. 

Just pretend you're Robinson Crusoe and your Man Friday hasn't shown up yet because he's in quarantine for one more week. Watch the waves roll in, and roll back out.

 

Don't like that date?

Fine. Pick your own and do everything in your power to make it all go away by then.

You'll likely succeed, because of just exactly who you are.

 

-----------

 

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries : 

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem, play some music.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, (57%) is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
  13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.
  14. Bill collectors seem much less active.
  15. There are moments of mental lucidity. For example: I had already lived through some crappy periods in my life, but I think this one takes the cake.
  16. Thankful to not have to be on the front lines as this approaches. Praying for those who are.
  17. Centering : spending more time doing things that should make a difference. Less counting.
  18. "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
  19. Distance may separate me physically from my family. But we are constantly with each other. That can never be confined.
  20. Grateful for all those who sell and deliver items purchased online. It's still possible. (But wipe the box with Clorox before opening! (Didn't use to do that) ...
  21. An increase in the numbers of moments of absolute silence.
  22. Math can be tedious. A times very revealing. And that's a positive.
  23. Sleeping. Solid as a rock.
  24. There seems to be an increased ability to listen. To others, but also to oneself.
  25. Land mines do not usually go off by themselves. You have to step on them. Stay isolated !
  26. Essential items are recognized more easily.
  27. Imagine if one day somebody appears and says: "You know, all this confinement stuff was not really necessary. All you had to do was ... " Couldn't you just punch a guy like that in the face?
  28. Returning to things ignored for too long (working in the quiet and smells of the greenhouse).
  29. Identifying more clearly, one's limits of patience.
  30. Actually comforted by being able to get away from crowds.
  31. Turning correct conclusions into correct action, and sometimes, correct non-action.
  32. Being able to identify the lemmings more clearly by their self-interests.
  33. "The brave men who fought here, have consecrated it far beyond our poor power to add or detract."
  34. It took distancing, to help us find more closeness to others. More similarities. Fewer differences.
  35. Much more time to rediscover things set aside long ago. (Example: The Beatle's White Album).
  36. Very grateful for indoor plumbing.
  37. Ease up. Taking a day off doesn't mean the world won't be there tomorrow.
  38. Some days, anxiety will creep up on you. When things are getting raw, it's that. Recognize it. And take that decision you've been putting off. Turn it into action. 
  39. Saying less. Listening more. Being more selective in one's listening. Tuning out noise.
  40. Conforted to see that Nature is getting along just fine, without my support.
  41. Accepting that it's not over yet, calms the soul.
  42. Discovering that patience is in fact possible, but signs of hope always help.
  43. Getting calm enough to focus and get a few TTD's, done.

 

Now that you've done your homework ...

Listen to Brother Timothy the Storyteller, as he puts this all together for you.

Tough to beat the Irish at rising out of disasters, especially those they caused ...

 

"There's got to be a way out of this!!"

Well, maybe not just yet.

 

 

Miss the Beatles?

Here ya go ...

 

 

So just listen, and live through this disaster one day at a time.

Like Boot Camp, roach infestations, or a bad course in College.

Those too, went away and are now just a memory.

 

You're going to make it!

 

Situation in Belgium today (in French, but lots of graphs) >>>>>>>>>

 

 

<<<<<<<  Home

 

 

 

 



23/05/2020
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