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22 April at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(ce même article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - 22 April, 2020

 

185 countries of the world, sampled by Johns Hopkins CSSE this morning.

 

Johns Hopkins CSSE continues to add more features to their map. (Geeks call this 'functionality').

Once this is all a thing of the past, I can imagine the difficulty of marketing a product that shows you where the most people a currently succombing to a virus. Not my problem, but I empathize fully.

 

Here is an example. The Case Fatality Ratio for our neck of the woods ...

Small dots : fewer deaths. Big dots : more deaths (where I live, we've earned a BIG DOT.

JH Case Fatality Ratio - April 22, 2020

 

But do have a look, now that you've got a bit more time. Click on little arrows on their page, and see how things change. Almost as much fun as Video Poker.

 

One more concept :   Prevalence looks at existing cases, while incidence looks at new cases.

 

So here is their map for the same region for Incidence : these are places that are still getting new cases.

 

JH CSSE - Incidence - April 22, 2020

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World population - April 22, 2020

 

 

 

OK. Excitement's over. Back to our Ho-Hum but exceptionally consistent presentation.

(Did you notice we missed a day? I was getting Ho-Hummed to death. Better now).

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - April 22, 2020

 

 

 Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from two days ago, 0.031452%, to today's value of 0.033546%. That's a 6.66% increase in prevalance, but over two days. Not to panic. That's a 3.33% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday: ?% (no data collected). Day before: 3.80%.  Three days ago : 3.97%. The driver is easing up on the gas pedal.
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 33.6 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." An increase since yesterday. That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Apr 22

 

Trends 1

Trends #2

Trends 2 - Apr 22, 2020

Trends #3

In the last week ...

Trends 2wk - Apr 22, 2020

Trends #4

Today ...

 

Trends 3 - Apr 22, 2020

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 3,561%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 3,021%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thosewho have died and recovered from their illness).  It is an answer to the question: "Just how much of this disease have we had since the start?"
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 102.99%. Yesterday, ?%. Day before : 102.4%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -33.18%. Yesterday, ?%. The day before:  -36.16%. Negative values are always a little harder to understand. The more it approaches and passes 0, the better.  On February 27, 40% of those who had become infected with COVID-19, had recovered. Today April 22, 26.75% of those infected have recovered, ?%, yesterday.  Day before: 25.56%. New cases are still outpacing a consistent but slow recovery.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 is still increasing throughout the world, but at a slower rate
  • Deaths from COVID-19 remain an infrequent outcome, but continue to increase.
  • Recovery from COVID-19 is gradual but constant. 686,052 people who had it, have now recovered.
  • You can't take a day off, or you lose data. What a challenge! WHen the going gets tough, the tough get going.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in Actively ILL - 22 April, 2020

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now increased (36.6 x) to 3,561% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 1,700,997 worldwide. The equation predicts slightly more for this day: 1,751,216. This is 50,519 ABOVE the actual value. Yesterday: ?. So the total of actively ill worldwide, continues to increase, but at a rate that is slower than predicted. 
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.51% of the time) with an error in this estimate of 2.952%, above actual cases. Yesterday: ?% error.  Day before: 3.022% error.
  • If nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 1,803,322 tomorrow.
  • Notice also that the coefficient for the powerful x³ variable (the first in the equation), remains negative (-12.156), (yesterday's value unknown), and the day before: -10.061x³.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

  • The fit of the equation to the actual data, continues to improve.
  • At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number.
  • The rate of increase is currently slowing day by day. On April 14 the equation was underestimating the actual. Since then it overestimates, slightly.

 

Globally, more people became sick with COVID-19 once again since yesterday, but at a slower rate. 

It would be very nice to be able to write something different.

 

Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 25 countries

All values are current as of this morning, Wednesday, April 22, 2020 at 8:52AM.

 

Prevalence - April 22, 2020

 

Interpretation:

When reviewing these 25 countries, the COVID-19 illness is still quite present. Especially in countries like Spain, Belgium, Switzerland and Ireland.

 

Above prevalences, ranked (25 countries)

Presence of the disease in each of these 25 countries that we have been following.

 

Prevalence, with Days of Infection - Apr 22

 

Presented with and sorted by number of Days of Infection

Prevalence, sorted by Days of Infection - April 22, 2020

 

 

% who have Recovered per Day of Infection in the country

The higher on the list, the better the outcome from this illness. 

 

Prevalence sorted by Recovered per million per day of infection - April 22, 2020

 

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Most will recover. If not soon, eventually.

Recovered - April 22, 2020

 

Unfortunately, some are still dying of COVID-19.

Died, % of Confirmed (CFR) - April 22, 2020

 

The raw data for Deaths in these 25 countries

Deaths, Raw data - April 22

 

Deaths per million inhabitants

Belgium has risen above Spain, Italy and France.

 

Deaths per Million inhabitants - April 22, 2020

 

Actively Sick with COVID-19  (est. 79.6% mild; 13.6% severe; 4.9% critical), 25 countries 

Of all those in the world who have been reported as testing positive for this virus,

57%% are still Actively ILL. (Yesterday ?%). 62% the day before.

That's a lot of sick people.

 

Actively ILL - April 22; 2020

 

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Tests Performed - 22 April

Total tests as of 22 April, 2020 : Belgium - 167,110 (Apr 20) USA - 4,163,464 (Apr 22).

What, finally, makes more tests possible?  Perhaps a firm decision, matched by action, to do more tests.

 

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Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries : 

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem, play some music.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, (57%) is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
  13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.
  14. Bill collectors seem much less active.
  15. There are moments of mental lucidity. For example: I had already lived through some crappy periods in my life, but I think this one takes the cake.
  16. Thankful to not have to be on the front lines as this approaches. Praying for those who are.
  17. Centering : spending more time doing things that should make a difference. Less counting.
  18. "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
  19. Distance may separate me physically from my family. But we are constantly with each other. That can never be confined.
  20. Grateful for all those who sell and deliver items purchased online. It's still possible. (But wipe the box with Clorox before opening! (Didn't use to do that) ...
  21. An increase in the numbers of moments of absolute silence.
  22. Math can be tedious. A times very revealing. And that's a positive.
  23. Sleeping. Solid as a rock.
  24. There seems to be an increased ability to listen. To others, but also to oneself.
  25. Land mines do not usually go off by themselves. You have to step on them. Stay isolated !
  26. Essential items are recognized more easily.
  27. Imagine if one day somebody appears and says: "You know, all this confinement stuff was not really necessary. All you had to do was ... " Couldn't you just punch a guy like that in the face?
  28. Returning to things ignored for too long (working in the quiet and smells of the greenhouse).
  29. Identifying more clearly, one's limits of patience.
  30. Actually comforted by being able to get away from crowds.
  31. Turning correct conclusions into correct action, and sometimes, correct non-action.
  32. Being able to identify the lemmings more clearly by their self-interests.
  33. "The brave men who fought here, have consecrated it far beyond our poor power to add or detract."
  34. It took distancing, to help us find more closeness to others. More similarities. Fewer differences.
  35. Much more time to rediscover things set aside long ago. (Example: The Beatle's White Album).
  36. Very grateful for indoor plumbing.
  37. Ease up. Taking a day off doesn't mean the world won't be there tomorrow.

 

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The answer, of course, is blowing in the wind.

 

 

 

This world view in French (en français, vue sur le monde)>>>>>>

 

Results in Belgium this day (also in French) >>>>> 

 

Yesterday's results in Belgium (in French) >>>>>

 

 

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22/04/2020
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