coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

21 March at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(cet article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

JH CSSE - March 21, 2020

Notice that the above graphic report includes data from 166 countries or regions sampled.

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population - March 21, 2020 at 07h22m33s

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI Index - March 21, 2020

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday,0.003202%, to today's value of 0.003606%. That's a 12.62% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday that increase was 11.76%.
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 3.61 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Mar 21

Trends 1 - March 21

Trends #2

Trends 2- March 21

Trends #3

In the last week ...

 

Trends 2wk - March 21

 

Trends #4

Today ...

Trends 3- March 21

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 278.30%. Yesterday's value: 219.52%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February, and more people sick than yesterday).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 235.22%. Yesterday's value: 197.42%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thos who have died and recovered from their illness).
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 21.40% Yesterday this figure was lower at 20.32%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -19.971%, less than yesterday's value of -12.131%, and the value the day before, -3.99%. New active cases are outpacing the rate of recovery, but people are still recovering.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 8,403 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and more than the 7,380 new cases per day, yesterday. Note! This includes those who have recovered and those who died.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today:88,256, Yesterday : 86,026 Feb 27 : 32,897)  If the above value for rate of Recovery is negative (-19.971), it reflects a rate lower than on Feb. 27, since the number of actively ill is increasing rapidly at present. But COVID-19 patients are continuing to recover worldwide.
  • Death rate worldwide is at 4.139% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%, and yesterday's value of 4.102%. That variable increased 0.902% since yesterday, (1.89%) and increased 21.42% since Feb 27. Again, this is an overall figure, and varies greatly from one country to the next.
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (175,779 today), increased 18.40% since yesterday, (148,467). Yesterday this increase was 17.93%, and the day before was 16.31%. These rates of increase show a gradual but consistent increase in active cases at this time, worldwide. This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 175,779 Actively Sick today, that's 278.30% above the value on Feb. 27, (3.783 times that value) almost quadrupling.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

CHange in Actively Sick - March 21, 2020

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now almost quadrupled (3.78x) to 220% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 175,779 worldwide. The equation predicts for this day: 170,333.
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.63% of the time) with an error in this estimate of -3.098%, slightly below actual cases. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 194,553 tomorrow.
  • Yesterday, (see result in yesterday's article) the % error was -2.398% below reported value.  Today, % error is -3.098% with predicted being slightly below the reported value.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, (178,779) now 132,313 above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events 20 days ago.

 

Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 23 countries

Prevalence - 21 March, 2020

Here's the sorted list of prevalence for this sample of 23 countries. Still no luck with finding test number values for Germany and Portugal. All values are current as of this morning, Saturday, March 21, 2020.

 

Most will recover. If not soon, eventually

Recovery - March 21, 2020

But some will stay behind. Affirming it was not a dream.

Deaths - March 21, 2020

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries :

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.

 

 

 

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21/03/2020
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