coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

20 March at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(cet article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

JH CSSE - 20 March, 2020

Notice that the above graphic report includes data from 160 countries or regions sampled.

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

World Population - 20 March, 2020

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - March 20, 2020

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.002865%, to today's value of 0.003202%. That's an 11.76% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday that increase was 10.41%.
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 3.20 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Mar 20

 

Trends 1 - 20 March, 2020

Trends #2

Trends 2- 20 March, 2020

Trends #3

In the last week ...

Trends 2wk- 20 March, 2020

Trends #4

Today ...

 

Trends 3- 20 March, 2020

 

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 219.52%. Yesterday's value: 170.93%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February, and more people sick than yesterday).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 197.42%. Yesterday's value: 166.32%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thos who have died and recovered from their illness).
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 20.32% Yesterday this figure was lower at 18.11%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -12.131%, less than yesterday's value of -3.990%, and the value the day before, 3.307%. This is the second day that this value is negative, a lower Recovery Rate than that of February 27.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 7,380 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and more than the 6,507 new cases per day, yesterday. Note! This includes those who have recovered and those who died.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today: 86,026, Yesterday : 84,114 Feb 27 : 32,897)  If the above value for rate of Recovery is negative (-12.131), it reflects a rate lower than on Feb. 27, since the number of actively ill is increasing rapidly at present. But COVID-19 patients are continuing to recover worldwide.
  • Death rate worldwide is at 4.102% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%, and yesterday's value of 4.026%. That variable increased 1.89% since yesterday, and increased 20.33% since Feb 27. Again, this is an overall figure, and varies greatly from one country to the next.
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (148,467 today), increased 17.93% since yesterday, (125,891). Yesterday this increase was 16.31%, and the day before was 12.96%. These rates of increase show a gradual but consistent increase in active cases at this time, worldwide. This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 148,467 Actively Sick today, that's 219.52% above the value on Feb. 27, (3.1951 times that value) more than tripling.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in Actively Sick - 20 March, 2020

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now more than tripled (3.2x) to 220% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 148,467 worldwide. The equation predicts for this day: 144,924.
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.7% of the time) with an error in this estimate of -2.389%, slightly below actual cases. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 164,963 tomorrow.
  • Yesterday, (see result in yesterday's article) the % error was -1.128% above reported value.  Today, % error is -2.389% with predicted being slightly below the reported value.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, (148,467) now 102,001 above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events 20 days ago.

 

Prévalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 23 countries

Prevalence 20 March (32 sampled countries)

 

Most will recover. If not soon, eventually

Recovery - 20 March

 

But some will stay behind. Affirming it was not a dream.

Died - 20 March, 2020

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries :

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.

 

BALANCE & PERSPECTIVE

( a game of Forest versus Trees)

Mortality Data since January 1, 2020

              •    10,030 : COVID-19 (coronavirus) - this day March 19,2020
              •    69,602 : Common Cold (adenovirus & others)
              •  140,584 : Malaria
              •  153,696 : Suicide
              •  193,479 : Road Traffic Accidents
              •  240,950 : HIV

 

Source : University of Hamburg, Germany

 

 

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20/03/2020
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