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19 April at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(ce même article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - April 19, 2020 at 06h38m31s

 

185 countries of the world, sampled by Johns Hopkins CSSE this morning.

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population - April 19, 2020 at 07h22m33s

 

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - April 19

 

 

 Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.029361%, to today's value of 0.030477%. That's a 3.80% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday: 3.97%. Day before: 4.54%.  Three days ago : 4.16%. Did we reach a peak two days ago?
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 30.5 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." An increase since yesterday. That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Apr 19

Trends 1 April 19

 

 

Trends #2

Trends 2 April 19

 

Trends #3

In the last week ...

Trends 2wk April 19

 

 

Trends #4

Today ...

Trends 3 April 19, 2020

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 3,287%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 2,735%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thosewho have died and recovered from their illness).  It is an answer to the question: "Just how much of this disease have we had since the start?"
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 102.4%. Yesterday, 101.6%. Day before : 94.87%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -36.16%. Yesterday, -36.60%. The day before:  -37.06%. Negative values are always a little harder to understand. The more it approaches and passes 0 here, the better.  On February 27, 40% of thise who had become infected with COVID-19, had recovered. Today April 18, 25.56% of those infected have recovered, 25.38%, yesterday.  Day before: 24.81%. New cases are still outpacing a consistent but slow recovery.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 is still increasing throughout the world, but at a slower rate
  • Deaths from COVID-19 remain an infrequent outcome, but continue to increase.
  • Recovery from COVID-19 is gradual but constant. 569,699 people who had it, have now recovered.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in Activelt ILL - April 19

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now increased (33.9 x) to 3,286% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 1,573,497 worldwide. The equation predicts slightly more for this day: 1,621,050. This is 47,553 ABOVE the actual value. Yesterday: 57,400 ABOVE actual. So the total of actively ill worldwide, continues to increase, but at a rate that is slower than predicted. 
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.49% of the time) with an error in this estimate of 3.022%, above actual cases. Yesterday: 3.775% error.  Day before: 4.521% error.
  • If nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 1,679,213 tomorrow.
  • Notice also that the coefficient for the powerful x³ variable (the first in the equation), now remains negative (-10.061), and more so than yesterday's value of -9.309x³, or the day before: -7.6875x³.

 

 

In PlainSpeak ...

  • A slightly better fit of the equation to the actual data.
  • At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number.
  • The rate of increase is currently slowing day by day. On April 14 the equation was underestimating the actual. Since then it overestimates, slightly.

 

Globally, more people became sick with COVID-19 once again since yesterday, but at a slower rate. 

 

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Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 25 countries

All values are current as of this morning, Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 7:23AM.

Prevalence - April 19

Interpretation:

When reviewing these 25 countries, the COVID-19 illness is still quite present. Especially in countries like Spain, Switzerland, Belgium and Ireland.

 

Above prevalences, ranked (25 countries)

Presence of the disease in each of these 25 countries that we have been following.

 

Prevalence with Days of Infection and % Revered - 19 April, 2020

 

 

Presented with and sorted by number of Days of Infection

Prevalence, sorted by Days of Infection with % Recovered - 19 April, 2020

 

Sorted by Deaths per million inhabitants :

Belgium remains #1 among these 25 countries.

High mortality. High prevalence. Concerning.

 

Prevalence, sorted by Deaths per Million - April 19, 2020

 

 

% who Died per Day of Infection in the country

Netherlands' elected policy of "herd immunity" may be playing a role in its result here. The virus arrived in Netherlands more recently than in Belgium, so these effects might be expected to change in the coming days.

 

% Died per day of infection - April 19, 2020

 

 

 

% who have Recovered per Day of Infection in the country

The higher on the list, the better the outcome from this illness. 

 

Prevalence, sorted by Recovered per Million per Day of Infection - April 19

 

 

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Most will recover. If not soon, eventually.

Recovered - April 19, 2020

 

Unfortunately, some are still dying of COVID-19.

Deaths, % of Confirmed Cases - April 19, 2020

 

 

The raw data for Deaths in these 25 countries

Deaths, raw data - APril 19, 2020

 

 

Deaths per million inhabitants

Belgium has risen above Spain, Italy and France.

Deaths per million population - April 19, 2020

 

 

 

Actively Sick with COVID-19  (est. 79.6% mild; 13.6% severe; 4.9% critical), 25 countries 

Of all those in the world who have been reported as testing positive for this virus,

62% are still Actively ILL. (Yesterday 63%).

That's a lot of sick people.

 

Actively ILL - April 19

 

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Testing Worldwide

Tests - April 19, 2020

 

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Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries : 

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem, play some music.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
  13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.
  14. Bill collectors seem much less active.
  15. There are moments of mental lucidity. For example: I had already lived through some crappy periods in my life, but I think this one takes the cake.
  16. Thankful to not have to be on the front lines as this approaches. Praying for those who are.
  17. Centering : spending more time doing things that should make a difference. Less counting.
  18. "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
  19. Distance may separate me physically from my family. But we are constantly with each other. That can never be confined.
  20. Grateful for all those who sell and deliver items purchased online. It's still possible. (But wipe the box with Clorox before opening! (Didn't use to do that) ...
  21. An increase in the numbers of moments of absolute silence.
  22. Math can be tedious. A times very revealing. And that's a positive.
  23. Sleeping. Solid as a rock.
  24. There seems to be an increased ability to listen. To others, but also to oneself.
  25. Land mines do not usually go off by themselves. You have to step on them. Stay isolated !
  26. Essential items are recognized more easily.
  27. Imagine if one day somebody appears and says: "You know, all this confinement stuff was not really necessary. All you had to do was ... " Couldn't you just punch a guy like that in the face?
  28. Returning to things ignored for too long (working in the quiet and smells of the greenhouse).
  29. Identifying more clearly, one's limits of patience.
  30. Actually comforted by being able to get away from crowds.
  31. Turning correct conclusions into correct action, and sometimes, correct non-action.
  32. Being able to identify the lemmings more clearly by their self-interests.
  33. "The brave men who fought here, have consecrated it far beyond our poor power to add or detract."
  34. It took distancing, to help us find more closeness to others. More similarities. Fewer differences.
  35. Much more time to rediscover things set aside long ago. (Example: The Beatle's White Album).

 

 

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This world view in French (en français, vue sur le monde)>>>>>>

 

Results in Belgium this day (also in French) >>>>> 

 

Yesterday's results in Belgium (in French) >>>>>

 

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19/04/2020
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