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18 March at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(cet article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - March 18, 2020 at 06h53m25s

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population March 18, 2020 at 07h22m33s

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - March 18, 2020

 

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.002388%, to today's value of 0.002595%. That's an 8.67% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday that increase was 16.61%%.

The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.

One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 2.60 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Mar 18

 

Trends 1 - March 18

 

 

Trends #2

Trends 2 - March 18

Trends #3

In the last week ...

Trends 2wk - March 18

Trends #4

Today ...

 

Trends 3 - March 18 - Today

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 132.94%. Yesterday's value: 106.22%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February, and more people sick than yesterday).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 141.03%. Yesterday's value: 121.89%. This is the change in "world prevalence." (This is counting the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thos who have died and recovered from their illness).
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 17.75% Yesterday this figure was lower at 15.05%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 3.307%, less than yesterday's value of 8.764%, and the value the day before, 13.92%.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases are increasing. At present, 5,799 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and more than the 5,276 new cases per day, yesterday. Note! This includes those who have recovered and those who died.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today: 81,960, Yesterday : 79,433 Feb 27 : 32,897)  
  • Death rate worldwide is at 4.014% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%, and yesterday's value of 3.922%. That variable increased 2.35% since yesterday, and increased 17.75% since Feb 27.
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (108,238 today), increased 12.96% since yesterday, (95,820). Yesterday this increase was 11.92%, and the day before was 11.78%. These rates of increase are all pretty close, suggesting a stable rate of increase of the Actively Sick, worldwide. This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 108,238 Actively Sick today, that's 132.94% above the value on Feb. 27, more than doubling.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in Actively Sick - March 18, 2020

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now more than doubled to 133% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 108,238 worldwide. The equation predicts for this day: 108542.
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.6% of the time) with an error in this estimate of 0.281%. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 122,866 tomorrow.
  • Yesterday, (see result in yesterday's article) the % error was +0.308% below reported value.  Today, % error is +0.281% with predicted being slightly above the reported value. These are small differences in error of estimation. This again suggests that as more data are added, the fit to the curve improves.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, (108,238) now 61,772 above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events 19 days ago.

 

Our hopes, prayers, and words of encouragement go out to all those who are feeling poorly this day due to COVID-19. To those who have lost family members, sincere condolences. And to those who have recovered, stay well. You must feel relieved, and we take courage from your success.

 

Think each day of how we will all dance together, when this is over.

 

Prévalence (how much disease burden ?) - sample of 23 countries

Prevalence 23 countries - March 18, 2020

 

Most will recover. If not soon, eventually

 

% Recovered of Confirmed Cases - March 18, 2020

 

But some will stay behind. Affirming it was not a dream.

% Died of Confirmed Cases - March 18, 2020

 

 

 

When the Fire burns the Forest

When the fire burns the forest
Without thinking or thinking a single thing only
The animals flee.
At length from a distance
They can turn big eyes to see those 
Who being too slow
Remained behind
To count them, try and recall their names
And shed a tear.
And where that reminder of what love is
Falls at their feet
Already the dry hopeless place drinks it in
Drinks it in without a thought, but thankful
Starts anew.

 

And they remember so the tales can begin.
Place it in the deep spot
The only place where keeping is true and safe.
So the young ones can one day
Stare in disbelief and say
"Grandpa you're making that up!"
Though they do in fact notice
Some healed wounds.
Some deep wrinkles that seem to say
We are all carved in stone.
But the stone has a soft place.
It passes among us with each breath
Pushed by spirit to lend a hand
So the story need never end.

 

Think each day of how we will all dance together, when this is over.

 

 

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18/03/2020
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