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18 April at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(ce même article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - April 18, 2020 at 06h38m59s

 

185 countries of the world, sampled by Johns Hopkins CSSE this morning.

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population - April 18, 2020 at 07h55m35s

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - April 18, 2020

 

 Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.028240%, to today's value of 0.029361%. That's a 3.97% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday: 4.54%. Day before: 4.16%.  Three days ago : 3.19%. A continuous slight increase in rate.
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 29.4 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." An increase since yesterday. That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Apr 18

Trends 1 - 18 Aprl, 2020

Trends #2

Trends 2 - 18 Aprl, 2020

 

Trends #3

In the last week ...

 

Trends 2wk - 18 Aprl, 2020

Trends #4

Today ...

 

Trends 3 - 18 Aprl, 2020

 

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 3,172%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 2,632%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thosewho have died and recovered from their illness).  It is an answer to the question: "Just how much of this disease have we had since the start?"
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 101.6%. Yesterday, 94.8%. Day before : 94.7%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -36.60%. Yesterday, -37.06%. The day before:  -37.06%. Negative values are always a little harder to understand. The more it approaches and passes 0 here, the better.  On February 27, 40% of thise who had become infected with COVID-19, had recovered. Today April 18, 25.38% of those infected have recovered, 25.20%, yesterday.  Day before: 24.81%. New cases are still outpacing a consistent but slow recovery.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 is still increasing throughout the world, but at a slower rate
  • Deaths from COVID-19 remain an infrequent outcome, but continue to increase.
  • Recovery from COVID-19 is gradual but constant. 569,699 people who had it, have now recovered.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Actively ILL - April 18

 

 

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now increased (32.7 x) to 3,172% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 1,520,385 worldwide. The equation predicts slightly more for this day: 1,577,785. This is 57,400 ABOVE the actual value. Yesterday: 66,413 ABOVE actual. So the total of actively ill worldwide, continues to increase, but at a rate that is slower than predicted. 
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.46% of the time) with an error in this estimate of 3.775%, above actual cases. Yesterday: 4.521% error.  Day before: 5.578% error.
  • If nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 1,638,212 tomorrow.
  • Notice also that the coefficient for the powerful x³ variable (the first in the equation), now remains negative (-9.309), and more so than yesterday's value of -7.6875x³, or the day before: -5.9958x³.

 

 

In PlainSpeak ...

  • A slightly better fit of the equation to the actual data.
  • At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number.
  • The rate of increase is currently slowing day by day. On April 14 the equation was underestimating the actual. Since then it overestimates, but slightly. But if you had thoughts that this would be a quick return to status quo ... 

 

Globally, more people became sick with COVID-19 once again since yesterday, but at a slower rate. 

 

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Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 25 countries

All values are current as of this morning, Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 8:16AM.

 

 

Prevalence graph - April 18

 

Interpretation:

When reviewing these 25 countries, the COVID-19 illness is still quite present. Especially in countries like Spain, Switzerland, Belgium and Italy.

 

Above prevalences, ranked (25 countries)

Presence of the disease in each of these 25 countries that we have been following.

 

Prevalence - April 18

 

Presented with and sorted by number of Days of Infection

Prevalence - April 18 - Days of Infection

 

 

 

Sorted by Deaths per million inhabitants :

Belgium remains #1 among these 25 countries.

High mortality. High prevalence. Concerning.

 

Prevalence - April 18 - Deaths per million

 

 

% who Died per Day of Infection in the country

Netherlands' elected policy of "herd immunity" may be playing a role in its result here. The virus arrived in Netherlands more recently than in Belgium, so these effects might be expected to change in the coming days.

 

Prevalence - April 18 - % Died per Day of infection

 

% who have Recovered per Day of Infection in the country

The higher on the list, the better the outcome from this illness. (More on this, related to TESTing, below on this page).

 

Prevalence - sorted by % Recovered per day of infection - 18 April

 

 

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Most will recover. If not soon, eventually.

 

Recovered - April 18

 

 

Unfortunately, some are still dying of COVID-19.

Deaths % - April 18

The raw data for Deaths in these 25 countries

Deaths, Raw Data - Aptil 18

 

 

Deaths per million inhabitants

Belgium has risen above Spain, Italy and France.

Deaths per Million pop - April 18

 

Actively Sick with COVID-19  (est. 79.6% mild; 13.6% severe; 4.9% critical), 25 countries 

Of all those in the world who have been reported as testing positive for this virus,

63% are still Actively ILL.

That's a lot of sick people.

Actively ILL Confirmed Cases - April 18

 

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Testing Around The World

Graphic summaries are found in the following gallery.

Data are current as of April 18, 2020

The 25 countries are listed alphabetically in descending order.

 

What are the various motivators for testing? 

 

The number of Confirmed cases? The number of Active cases? Deaths? 

Do more tests get a country to more Recovered cases?

 

Expressed as tests done per million inhabitants in a country, the mean value today is :

 

11,992 ± 7,513 tests / million inhabitants.

 

That standard deviation (7 thousand 5 hundred/ million) informs that there is not a recognized "right path" or uniform approach to testing applied throughout the world. One could say that it resembles more, trial and error, or major differences in the philosophy of guidance applied by each government. Available resources, and decisions to apply those resources or not, probably contribute to this large variability as reflected in this standard deviation.

 

 

How have things evolved over time?

March 14 ...

 

Clearly, more tests are being done worldwide. Is there a difference in outcome, as a function of testing?

 

This comparison might be useful ...

 

Testing Volume and Prevalence of the Disease - April 18

Here the countries are ranked by Test volume per million inhabitants.

Does doing more tests seem to follow having more disease present (prevalence) in a country?

Switzerland is an example of a "Yes" answer.  The others don't always seem to follow.

At the bottom, those countries without much disease presence, don't test much.

Clearly, this is a snapshot today. 

Where this began, China, now at the bottom, instructs how much this can change over time since the virus arrived in a country.

 

Is death from COVID-19 a motivator ?

Sorted by Volume of tests, along with mortality figures

 

Testing Volume and Deaths per million pop - April 18

 

 

And the same data for testing volume, sorted by mortality

 

Testing Volume sorted by Deaths per million pop - April 18

 

Hard to defend the idea that addressing observed rates of mortality by more testing is happening consistently in these 25 countries.

 

Does the number of Confirmed cases serve as a driver for more testing?

Here are the data, re-sorted by Confirmed cases ...

 

Testing Volume sorted by Confirmed cases - April 18

 

And to provide a bit more information, a column for prevalence of the disease is added below.

Still sorted by Tests done per confirmed case. 

 

Testing Volume sorted by Confirmed cases, with prevalences - April 18

 

Can one identify countries that have a better outcome from COVID-19 disease in the above list?

Hard to say ...

 

The desired outcome, is Recovery.

That may seem obvious. 

Appendicitis: makes one sick, an operation helps, hopefully without complications, and if the appendix was not perforated, home in about 3 days. If perforated, that's always worse, and it might take 10 days to get over it. But unless one falls into that very low mortality group, one has it actively, then recovers.

 

So does testing contribute to recovery ?

Here sorted by the raw data for those who have recovered from COVID-19

 

 

Tests per million and raw recovery data - April 17

 

More meaningful if sorted by that last column:  recovered from COVID-19, per million inhabitants :

 

Recovered per million inhabitants, sorted - April 18

 

But before deciding tht some countries have stellar performance (Switzerland) and others are a bit disappointing (UK or Portugal) in terms of logging a high number of recovered cases, (the desired result after all), something else needs to be controlled for, before seeing if the tests are contributing to recovery or not.

 

COVID-19 is like a wind moving across the water.

And just as invisible but real.

 

When about 50 years younger, I used to so lots of sailboat racing. And one developed the habit of looking for the wind. A group of sailboats would all be stalled with barely any wind. Then far off, the boats would begin to move as the wind moved in. Eventually the wind got to us, and we were back in the race. This was especially true during end of summer races.

 

Leaving the water, the same has been true of COVID-19, each country in the race has painfully learned, with varying levels of anxiety.  

 

The virus has an arrival date. While usually ignored by the population involved, cases increase. More testing contributes to this apparent increase. But testing or not, eventually a peak of illness is reached. Then, things seem to get better, and everyone starts planning the next vacation.

 

So let's try and control for this "virus just moving through" phenomenon.

Today in Belgium, April 18, minus the day the virus "arrived" (no passport nor entry visa, but that didn't stop it), and Belgium is living  Day 74 of its involvement with SARS-CoV-2 and its COVID-19 illnesses.

 

Days of Infection, sorted - APril 18

 

Above, our sample of 25 countries that we have been following. Those above are our elders from whom we may still have much to learn, and below, our juniors still learning about the effects of days of infection in their country.

 

Does a longer time with the virus find consistently higher or lower testing response? China is no longer even reporting tests, and I could have omitted China. But for all the others, (look at Portugal or Germany) time with the virus doesn't consistently influence testing behavior.

 

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But we were searching for motivators of Recovery, related to testing. The strongest players are at the top, in terms of generating more Recovery. But are they also grouped by having realized more Tests than the rest? Not sure I see that. Look at Switzerland, Israel, Italy, Portugal.

 

All of this depends of course, on having good numbers for the Recovered Cases. Perhaps less specific counting methods than for Deaths. 

 

Tests per million, sorted by % Recovered per Day of infection - APril 18

 

One last grouping ..., then I'll leave you alone.

Here below, the Tests per million have been sorted by the number of Recovered from COVID-19 per million inhabitants, per Day of Infection. 

And in the last column, the number of Tests done to obtain a Recovered case. That column is not used for sorting, it's just coming along for the ride. 

Now scan up and down that last column. Look at our champion, Switzerland (12.6 Tests done to get a Recovered patient. Then look at Ireland (1177 tests per Recovery) and Russia or the UK (1114 Tests per Recovery).

What is clear is that where a country is in this race, or more correctly when (Days of Infection) is corrected for, doing more Tests does not necessarily guarantee that next Recovered patient. 

 

Tests per million, sorted by Recovered per Million, per Day of infection - April 18

 

 

Those who rate health care systems (like the WHO) often place France as number 1 in the world. Japan #10. The UK #18. Switzerland is often #20 and Belgium #21. Germany #25. USA #37. Look at their results for number of Tests to do, to get to a Recovered patient. They are all over the place. So it's not the reported quality of the health care system in a country that is getting us to our next recovered patient.

 

I suggest studying the Top 10 in this list. Then decide for yourself, what they are doing right to get to more Recovered patients. That's the laudable goal. More Recovered patients.

 

Quite apparently, if our methods used here are correct, it's not the amount of Testing

 

Maybe, like an individual wearing a mask when he or she goes out, more Testing just relieves anxiety.

Perhaps for those who are ordering the Tests, or those forming Testing policy for their country.

Perhaps for those who get a test (especially a negative one).

 

It may just be a pacifier for the population. That valuable effect, while simply waiting for the virus to pass through and on its way. That, while doing everything possible at an individual level, to not come in contact with it, while it blows through like a bad wind. 

 

Our results and news here seem to fly in the face of a policy that we like: early identification of positive cases, separation of these from those not infected by isolation, contact identification, quarantine, and testing to find more infected individuals. We like that. The sooner put in place in a country, the better.

 

All of that is at the front door of contact with the virus. 

At the back door is Recovery. Finding cases earlier may logically get us to Recovery sooner.

But the data today couldn't prove that. And that's OK. 

 

The two conclusions are not at all incompatible.

 

More Recovery also means fewer Active cases, and fewer Deaths. 

Those depend greatly on the state of health in general in a country, the population that the virus encounters.

Most of the co-morbidities have already been studied an identified for COVID-19.

A country with more hypertension, obesity, diabetes, smoking, and other chronic health conditions, is a country that will have a harder time getting to Recovery.

 

 

 

Box the virus in - 4 steps

 

 

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries : 

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem, play some music.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
  13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.
  14. Bill collectors seem much less active.
  15. There are moments of mental lucidity. For example: I had already lived through some crappy periods in my life, but I think this one takes the cake.
  16. Thankful to not have to be on the front lines as this approaches. Praying for those who are.
  17. Centering : spending more time doing things that should make a difference. Less counting.
  18. "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
  19. Distance may separate me physically from my family. But we are constantly with each other. That can never be confined.
  20. Grateful for all those who sell and deliver items purchased online. It's still possible. (But wipe the box with Clorox before opening! (Didn't use to do that) ...
  21. An increase in the numbers of moments of absolute silence.
  22. Math can be tedious. A times very revealing. And that's a positive.
  23. Sleeping. Solid as a rock.
  24. There seems to be an increased ability to listen. To others, but also to oneself.
  25. Land mines do not usually go off by themselves. You have to step on them. Stay isolated !
  26. Essential items are recognized more easily.
  27. Imagine if one day somebody appears and says: "You know, all this confinement stuff was not really necessary. All you had to do was ... " Couldn't you just punch a guy like that in the face?
  28. Returning to things ignored for too long (working in the quiet and smells of the greenhouse).
  29. Identifying more clearly, one's limits of patience.
  30. Actually comforted by being able to get away from crowds.
  31. Turning correct conclusions into correct action, and sometimes, correct non-action.
  32. Being able to identify the lemmings more clearly by their self-interests.
  33. "The brave men who fought here, have consecrated it far beyond our poor power to add or detract."
  34. It took distancing, to help us find more closeness to others. More similarities. Fewer differences.

 

 

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This world view in French (en français, vue sur le monde)>>>>>>

 

Results in Belgium this day (also in French) >>>>> 

 

Yesterday's results in Belgium (in French, and in English) >>>>>

 

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18/04/2020
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