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17 April at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(ce même article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - April 17 at 07h33m22s

185 countries of the world, sampled by Johns Hopkins CSSE this morning.

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population - April 17 at 07h33m22s

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - April 17, 2020

 

 Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.027014%, to today's value of 0.028240%. That's a 4.54% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday: 4.16%. Day before: 3.19%.  Three days ago : 3.79%. A continuous slight increase in rate.
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 28.2 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." An increase since yesterday. That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Apr 17

 

Trends 1 - APril 17, 2020

Trends #2

Trends 2

Trends #3

In the last week ...

Trends 2wk - April 17, 2020

Trends #4

Today ...

Trends 3 - April 17, 2020

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 3,062%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 2,527%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thosewho have died and recovered from their illness).  It is an answer to the question: "Just how much of this disease have we had since the start?"
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 97.8%. Yesterday, 94.7%. Day before : 87.5%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -37.06%. Yesterday, -38.04%. The day before:  -38.58%. Negative values are always a little harder to understand. On February 27, 40% of thise who had become infected with COVID-19, had recovered. Today April 16, 25.20% of those infected have recovered, 24.81%, yesterday.  Day before: 24.59%. New cases are still outpacing a consistent slow recovery.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 is still increasing throughout the world, but at a slower rate
  • Deaths from COVID-19 remain an infrequent outcome, but continue to increase.
  • Recovery from COVID-19 is gradual but constant. 543,971 people who had it, have now recovered.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

here first , without all the numbers to better appreciated the wobble around the curve ...

 

Change in Actively ILL - 17 April, 2020 (without all the numbers)

 

... with the numbers. (Which do you like better?)

 

Change in Actively ILL - 17 April, 2020

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now increased (31.6 x) to 3,062% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 1,469,090 worldwide. The equation predicts slightly more for this day: 1,535,503. This is 66,413 ABOVE the actual value. Yesterday: 78,950 ABOVE actual. So the total of actively ill worldwide, continues to increase, but at a rate that is slower than predicted. 
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.45% of the time; but a little less than yesterday's R² = 99.46%) with an error in this estimate of 4.521%, above actual cases. Yesterday: 5.578% error.  Day before: 6.368% error.
  • If nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 1,598,535 tomorrow.
  • Notice also that the coefficient for the powerful x³ variable (the first in the equation), now remains negative (-7.6875), and more so than yesterday's value of -5.9958x³, or the day before: -3.8116x³.

 

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number.

The rate of increase is currently slowing day by day. On April 13 the equation was underestimating the actual. Since then it overestimates. But if you had thoughts that this would be a quick return to status quo ... 

 

Globally, more people became sick with COVID-19 once again since yesterday, but at a slower rate. 

 

Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 25 countries

All values are current as of this morning, Wednesday, April 16, 2020 at 8:46AM.

 

Prevalence - April 17, 2020

 

Interpretation:

When reviewing these 25 countries, the COVID-19 illness is still quite present. Especially in countries like Spain, Switzerland, Belgium and Italy.

 

 

Above prevalences, ranked (25 countries)

Presence of the disease in each of these 25 countries that we have been following.

 

Prevalence, with Days of Infection - April 17, 2020

 

Presented with number of Days of Infection and Mortality

Prevalence, ranked by Days of Infection - April 17, 2020

 

Sorted by Deaths per million inhabitants :

Prevalence, ranked by Deaths per Million - April 17, 2020

 

% who Died per Day of Infection in the country

 

Prevalence, ranked by % who died per Day of Infection - April 17, 2020

 

% who have Recovered per Day of Infection in the country

The higher on the list, the better the outcome from this illness.

 

Prevalence, ranked by % Recovered by Day of Infection - April 17, 2020

 

Interesting to fit the subject of Testing into this perspective 

Tests performed per Confirmed Case - 17 April, 2020

 

 

Tests performed per Death - April 17, 2020

 

If not many deaths, a given number of tests will seem a larger entity. The reverse is true. Countries with many deaths per million inhabitants (like Belgium presently) will appear to have done very few tests at a higher mortality rate. 

 

Can one conclude that more testing is associated with a reduced mortality?

It would seem so in these 25 countries ...

 

------------

 

Most will recover. If not soon, eventually.

Recovered - April 17, 2020

 

Unfortunately, some are still dying of COVID-19.

Died (% of Confirmed Cases) - April 17, 2020

 

The raw data for Deaths in these 25 countries

Deaths, Raw Data - April 17, 2020

 

Deaths per million inhabitants

Deaths per Million Inhabitants - April 17, 2020

 

Actively Sick with COVID-19  (est. 79.6% mild; 13.6% severe; 4.9% critical), 25 countries 

 

Actively ILL - April 17, 2020

 

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries : 

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem, play some music.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
  13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.
  14. Bill collectors seem much less active.
  15. There are moments of mental lucidity. For example: I had already lived through some crappy periods in my life, but I think this one takes the cake.
  16. Thankful to not have to be on the front lines as this approaches. Praying for those who are.
  17. Centering : spending more time doing things that should make a difference. Less counting.
  18. "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
  19. Distance may separate me physically from my family. But we are constantly with each other. That can never be confined.
  20. Grateful for all those who sell and deliver items purchased online. It's still possible. (But wipe the box with Clorox before opening! (Didn't use to do that) ...
  21. An increase in the numbers of moments of absolute silence.
  22. Math can be tedious. A times very revealing. And that's a positive.
  23. Sleeping. Solid as a rock.
  24. There seems to be an increased ability to listen. To others, but also to oneself.
  25. Land mines do not usually go off by themselves. You have to step on them. Stay isolated !
  26. Essential items are recognized more easily.
  27. Imagine if one day somebody appears and says: "You know, all this confinement stuff was not really necessary. All you had to do was ... " Couldn't you just punch a guy like that in the face?
  28. Returning to things ignored for too long (working in the quiet and smells of the greenhouse).
  29. Identifying more clearly, one's limits of patience.
  30. Actually comforted by being able to get away from crowds.
  31. Turning correct conclusions into correct action, and sometimes, correct non-action.
  32. Being able to identify the lemmings more clearly by their self-interests.
  33. "The brave men who fought here, have consecrated it far beyond our poor power to add or detract."

 

 

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This world view in French (en français, vue sur le monde)>>>>>>

 

Results in Belgium this day (also in French) >>>>> 

 

Results in Belgium this day (in English) >>>>>

 

Yesterday's results in Belgium (in French, and in English) >>>>>

 

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17/04/2020
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