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coronastavelot.com

16 March at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(cet article en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE March 16, 2020 at 04h33m03s

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population - March 16 at 07h22m33s

 

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - March 16, 2020

 

 

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.002048%, to today's value of 0.002218%. That's a 8.30% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday that increase was 7.56%.

The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.

One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 2.22 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Mar 16

Trends 1

 

Trends #2

Trends 2

Trends #3

In the last week ...

Trends 2wk

Trends #4

Today ...

Trends 3 - today

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 84.26%. Yesterday's value: 90.35%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February, but less than yesterday).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 106.06%. Yesterday's value: 90.257%. This is the change in "world prevalence." (This is counting the cases, independent of current status or final outcome).
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 12.79% Yesterday this figure was lower at 9.404%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 13.92%, less than yesterday's value of 18.125%, and the day before, 23.18%.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases are increasing. At present, 4,846 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and more than the 4,367 new cases per day, yesterday. Note! This includes those who have recovered and those who died.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today: 77,257, Yesterday : 73,968 Feb 27 : 32,897)  
  • Death rate worldwide is at 3.845% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%, and yesterday's value of 3.730%. That variable increased 3.08% since yesterday, and increased 12.79% since Feb 27.
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (85,617 today), increased 11.78% since yesterday, (76,595). Yesterday this increase was 12.23%, and the day before was 23.41% suggesting a possible trend of reduction in rate of increase of the Actively Sick, worldwide. This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 85,617 Actively Sick today, that's 84.26% above the value on Feb. 27. So conclusions will depend on the interval compared. More Actively sick than 17 days ago. Possible slowing since the day before yesterday.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

CHange in Actively Sick - 16 March, 2020

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick is now 84% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 85,617 worldwide. The equation predicts for this day: 85,168.
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 98.9% of the time) with an error in this estimate of -0.524%. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 96,498 tomorrow.
  • Yesterday, the % error was -2.13%.  Today, % error is -0.524% with predicted being again slightly below actual value today.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, (85,617) now 39,151 above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events 18 days ago.

 

 

Message from the Director General of the World Health Organization :

 

"Test !  Test !  Test !"

 

 

 

"Patience is a virtue."

 

The saying – “patience is a virtue” comes from the poem called Piers Plowman, created in 1360 – 1387. The original author of the quote is William Langland.

Patience may have been a virtue back in the 14th century, when there was no smartphones, internet, planes, email and so on. But not so much today.

 

Not everyone believes that patience is laudable.

 

Patience or something else

 

A very useful item to share, in these difficult times that we also share, is from (not surprisingly) the World Health Organization. Spend a bit of time with this document, here in PDF. It is their Situation Report from March 13, 2020.

 

It suggests that Europe is very "hot" right now. (No George, not as a travel destination. Read the news George). Anyway, Europe is "hot" and China is less so, and the USA is yet to come.

 

Hunker down.

Ride it out.

 

If you would like just a bit more information than "Hunker down" provides, you may benefit from looking over this page (scroll down when there to see all), again from W.H.O. - COVID-19 Advice for the public. Lots of good stuff. Then when you're done reading that, 

 

Hunker down.

Ride it out.

But, "Test !  Test !  Test !"

 

Why is it so essential to do this? Here is the situation that we would all like to avoid ...

 

So the more important "P" word than Patience today, is Preparedness, as this Anesthist in Italy wants us all to hear ... 

 

 

 

 

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16/03/2020
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