coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

15 March at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

 

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

JH CSSE - March 15, 2020 at 05h13m27s

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population - March 15, 2020 at 07h22m33s

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - March 15, 2020 - Sunday

 

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.001904%, to today's value of 0.002048%. That's a 7.56% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday that increase was 13.27%.

The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.

One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 2.05 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Mar 15

Trends 1

Trends #2

Trends 2

Trends #3

In the last week ...

Trends 2wk

Trends #4

Today ...

 

Trends 3

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 90.35%. Yesterday's value: 64.841%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February, and increasing at a significant rate).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 90.257%. This is the change in "world prevalence." (This is counting the cases, independent of current status of final outcome).
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 9.404% Yesterday this figure was slightly higher at 9.551%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 18.125%, less than yesterday's value of 23.18%, and the day before, 32,96%.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases are increasing. At present, 4,367 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and more than the 3,950 new cases per day, yesterday. Note! This includes those who have recovered and those who died.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today: 73,968, Yesterday : 71,694 Feb 27 : 32,897)  
  • Death rate worldwide is at 3.730% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%, and yesterday's value of 3.735%. That variable decreased -0.134% since yesterday, and increased 9.404% since Feb 27.
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (76,595 today), increased 12.23% since yesterday, (68,246). Yesterday this increase was 23.41%, suggesting a possible trend of reduction in rate of increase of the Actively Sick, worldwide. This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 76,595 Actively Sick today, that's 64.84% above the value on Feb. 27. So conclusions will depend on the interval compared. More Actively sick than 17 days ago. Possible slowing since yesterday.

 

Globally: rate of spread of COVID-19 is increasing. Very slight decrease in Death rate.

Possible slowing of the rate of increase, of those Actively Sick.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Actively Ill - 15 March, 2020

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick is now 65% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 76,595 worldwie. The equation predicts for this day: 74,964.
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 98% of the time) with an error in this estimate of -2.13%. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 84,537 tomorrow.
  • Yesterday, the % error was -5.4%.  Today, % error is -2.13% with predicted being again below actual value today.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, (76,595) now 30,129 above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events 18 days ago.

 

"Sail On, Sail On!"

 

Steady As She Goes

 

Imagine this ...

So here, we concluded (as you knew before reading it here) that the number of Actively Ill with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.

 

Here is a nice graphic representation published in the Washington Post, of what transmission of viral particles from one person to the next looks like in terms of rate of spread. It also models the effects of social isolation as an approach to control. Also, what happens when some individuals do not practice such isolation effectively, and continue to transmit to others. Have a look. It's fun to watch and instructive.

 

Here's my little clip, but do read this in full ...

 

 

 

 

Be well.

 

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15/03/2020
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