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15 April at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(ce même article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - April 15, 2020 at 06h25m18s

 

185 countries of the world, sampled by Johns Hopkins CSSE this morning.

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population April 15 at 07h22m54s

 

 

Don't worry. The numbers are coming.

Trends 1 - April 15, 2020

«When can we go back out?»

Just fold the paper in half, and you will see it.
You will have your answer.

 

This is much more than numbers.
More than counting beans before putting them in the pot.
Much more than a global Olympic Game to see which leaders were able to herd their flock together in time to avoid the wolf eating his full.

 

It’s like learning meditation.
«I can’t do that.»
«I never tried that.»
«Really doesn’t do anything for me.»

 

Doing Zazen ..
«Just sit. Just do your sitting.»

 

This is not a time to return too early to our habits of consuming. It is a time for fasting. For learning that even Amazon is not the solution. An answer to our learned mantra: «I will consume no matter what.»

 

«But just think of the economy!» 


Instead I would offer: «But just think of your existence.»

 

For years now, the Dalai Lama has spent hours each day, meditating on his death. Perhaps he learned something that keeps him better alive. He always seems to be oveflowing with joy.

 

Perhaps the elders are going first by choice. Knowing that there is nothing that this world can offer them, that would please. Nothing that would be enough. Funny. Their gransparents always seemed to have enough, and plenty to spare for others.

 

And when this has passed, as it must, even this will be forgotten one day. For forgetting is how we chose to make the pain stop. But before we get to that point of forgetfulness, let’s just buy something. Anything. Just to prove we are to be counted among the living. Just to prove we still can.

 

Those who cannot simply stay inside with themselves.
Those who must find any excuse to take their monkeybrain outside to show it to others and admire its beauty.
Those will be the one’s selected.


And when this has passed, perhaps one will be able to say that the world seems much calmer for their passing.

 

 

Don't worry. The numbers are coming.

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Raw and Derived Data :

CSI April 15, 2020

 

 

 Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.025134%, to today's value of 0.025935%. That's a 3.19% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday: 3.79%. Day before: 4.11%.  Three days ago : 4.65%. Still icreasing, but at a slower rate. Nice.
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 25.9 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." An increase since yesterday. That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Apr 15

 

Trends 1 - April 15, 2020

Trends #2

Trends 2 - April 15, 2020

Trends #3

In the last week ..

Trends 2wk - April 15, 2020

Trends #4

Today ...

Trends 3 - April 15, 2020

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 2,844%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 2,313%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thosewho have died and recovered from their illness).  It is an answer to the question: "Just how much of this disease have we had since the start?"
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 87.5%. Yesterday, 82.8%. Day before : 81.1%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -38.58%. Yesterday, -41.08%. The day before:  -41.89%. Negative values are always a little harder to understand. On February 27, 40% of thise who had become infected with COVID-19, had recovered. Today April 15, 24.59% of those infected have recovered, 23.59%, yesterday.  Day before: 23.27%. New cases are still outpacing the recovery.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 is still increasing throughout the world, but at a slower rate
  • Deaths from COVID-19 remain an infrequent outcome, but continue to increase slightly. This reminds me of a term in French : "croque-mort." During the years of plague in Europe, undertakers would pass through the streets, shouting "Bring out your dead! Bring out your deaad!" And that done, they would crunch down on a toe of the proposed decedent; just to confirm the death. No squirming observed? Diagnosis (death) confirmed. In French, "croquer" means to crunch. Undertakers where I live, are still called "le croque-mort."  The Past is Prologue.
  • Recovery from COVID-19 is gradual but constant. 487,471 people who had it, have now recovered.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in Actively ILL - April 15, 2020

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now increased (29.4 x) to 2,844% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 1,348,154 worldwide. The equation predicts slightly more for this day: 1,455,209. This is 87,121 ABOVE the actual value. Yesterday: 68,072 ABOVE actual. So the total of actively ill worldwide, continues to increase, but at a rate that is slower than predicted. Same conclusion yesterday, but now easier to discern. A good time to recall that we are on the World Data page here, and not on a Local Data page. There (as we shall see) things may still be heating up..
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.49% of the time; but a little less than yesterday's R² = 99.56%) with an error in this estimate of 6.368%, above actual cases. Yesterday: 5.049% error.  Day before: 4.456% error. This trend signals change.
  • But, it still suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 1,524,653 tomorrow.
  • Notice also that the coefficient for the powerful x³ variable (the first in the equation), now remains negative (-3.8116), and more so than yesterday's value of -1.1869x³.

 

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number.

The rate of increase is currently slowing day by day.

The above equation is adjusted each day with new data. If one applies yesterday's equation to today's actual value, it over-predicts today's actual value by about 9%. The coefficient for the x³ variable continues to decrease from 3.2804 three days ago, 1.0501 two days ago, to - 1.1869 yesterday, to -3.8116 today. Things continue to suggest an upcoming turn in the road. This is not the time to begin driving faster.

 

Globally, more people became sick with COVID-19 once again since yesterday, but at a slower rate. 

 

Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 25 countries

All values are current as of this morning, Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 7:54AM.

 

Prevalence - April 15, 2020

Interpretation:

When reviewing these 25 countries, the COVID-19 illness is still quite present. Especially in countries like Spain, Switzerland, Italy and Belgium.

 

Above prevalences, ranked (25 countries)

Prevalence, ranked - April 15, 2020

 

Again, this is prevalence: Presence of the disease in each of these 25 countries that we have been following.

 

Presented with number of Days of Infection a Mortality

Prevalence, ranked by Days of Infection - April 15, 2020

 

Here one can clearly appreciate that just waiting for the days of infection to pass through, is not associated with the same rate of deaths. That is where the differences in preparedness, early response, level of general testing of the population early on,  health system capability, acceptance of confinement and quarantine, attitudes towards the elderly ...,  all make a difference. That's what you have before you here.

 

Sorted by Deaths per million inhabitants :

Prevalence - by Deaths per million inhabitants - April 15, 2020

 

When Italy was "in big trouble" just a few days ago, people sought all sorts of reasons to explain why. But now Belgium has moved beyond Italy in deaths per million inhabitants. And if Spain and Italy have lived just a few days longer (75) with this illness, the next few days in Belgium may prove a challenge.

 

The UK, also at 75 days since the virus arrived on their shores, also seems o be doing something right.

Once again, the differences arises in variations in preparedness, early response, level of general testing of the population early on,  health system capability, acceptance of confinement and quarantine, attitudes towards the elderly ... In some countries that has been: "not one excess death," (Germany) and it others it has been more akin to: "well you know. She has had a good long life..."

 

Nevertheless, most will recover. If not soon, eventually.

Recovered - April 15, 2020

 

Unfortunately, some are still dying of COVID-19.

Deaths of Confirmed Cases - April 15

The raw data for Deaths in these 25 countries

Deaths, Raw Data - April 15, 2020

Deaths per million inhabitants

Deaths per million inhabitants - April 15, 2020

 

Actively Sick with COVID-19  (est. 79.6% mild; 13.6% severe; 4.9% critical), 25 countries 

Actively ILL - April 15

 

I realize that all of these numbers and graphs can quickly become tedious and an additional source of stress and anxiety. Especially if looked at each day.


But we need not worry at all about who has the best numbers. The right numbers.


The virus (SARS-CoV-2) will find a way to present us with the right numbers. The very best estimate.


I just hope that that lesson tought throughout our world, will not be too hard to learn.

 

 

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries : 

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem, play some music.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
  13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.
  14. Bill collectors seem much less active.
  15. There are moments of mental lucidity. For example: I had already lived through some crappy periods in my life, but I think this one takes the cake.
  16. Thankful to not have to be on the front lines as this approaches. Praying for those who are.
  17. Centering : spending more time doing things that should make a difference. Less counting.
  18. "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
  19. Distance may separate me physically from my family. But we are constantly with each other. That can never be confined.
  20. Grateful for all those who sell and deliver items purchased online. It's still possible. (But wipe the box with Clorox before opening! (Didn't use to do that) ...
  21. An increase in the numbers of moments of absolute silence.
  22. Math can be tedious. A times very revealing. And that's a positive.
  23. Sleeping. Solid as a rock.
  24. There seems to be an increased ability to listen. To others, but also to oneself.
  25. Land mines do not usually go off by themselves. You have to step on them. Stay isolated !
  26. Essential items are recognized more easily.
  27. Imagine if one day somebody appears and says: "You know, all this confinement stuff was not really necessary. All you had to do was ... " Couldn't you just punch a guy like that in the face?
  28. Returning to things ignored for too long (working in the quiet and smells of the greenhouse).
  29. Identifying more clearly, one's limits of patience.
  30. Actually comforted by being able to get away from crowds.
  31. Turning correct conclusions into correct action, and sometimes, correct non-action.

 

 

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This world view in French >>>>>>

 

Results in Belgium this day (also in French) >>>>> 

 

Yesterday's results in Belgium (in French, but simplified by graphic content) >>>>>

 

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15/04/2020
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