coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

13 March at CoronaStavelot.com - Friday

E:  World COVID-19 data this day

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

JH CCSE 13 March, 2020 at 12h44m33s

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population - March 13, 2020 at 07h23m10

 

Just a Thought :

When tracking of COVID-19 events began on this blog, the Census Bureau's estimate of world population on February 27, was 7,633,071,283 inhabitants.  Today, March 13, it's 7,636,240,830.

This is a net increase of 3,169,547 inhabitants, or 211,303 per day during this 15 day interval.

 

Over time, which phenomenon is more likely to impact one's existence: COVID-19 or world population?

 

Perhaps you'd prefer to think about one problem at a time.

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - 13 March, 2020

 

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.001653% to today's value of 0.001681%. The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.

One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 1.68 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Mar 13

 

(click to enlarge)

Trends 1

 

Trends #2

(click to enlarge)

Trends 2

 

Trends #3

In the last week ...

 

(click to enlarge)

Trends 2wk

 

Trends #4

Today ...

 

(click to enlarge)

Trends 3

Results:

  • (red bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, corrected for the world population on the same day, compared with those of February 27, increased by 56,14%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
  • (green bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 32,96%.
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 7.879% Yesterday this figure was 7.756%.
  • (yellow bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 56.203%. (Almost the same as when corrected for world population [red bar]).
  • (purple bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 19.010%. Yesterday, 14.824%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February.).

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases may be beginning to decrease. At present, 3,079 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, but less than the 3,150 new cases per day, yesterday. Warning! This includes those who have recovered and those who died.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today: 68,324, Yesterday : 68,266 Feb 27 : 32,897)
  • Death rate worldwide is at 3.678% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%. This rate of change in deaths (7.879%) increased again from that presented yesterday ((7.756%). 
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (55,299 today), increased 3.646% since yesterday, (53,354). That is a reduction from yesterday's rate of increase which was 8.726%. This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 55,299 Actively Sick today, that's 19,01% above the value on Feb. 27. 

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Actively Sick - 13 March, 2020

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick is now 19% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 55,299. The equation predicts for this day: 52,335.
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.1% of the time) with an error in this estimate of -5,360%. That error value yesterday was -7.23%. This supports the suggestion that the fit of the curve to actual data continues to improve. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 55,998 tomorrow.
  • Yesterday, the % error was -7.23%. So predicted was 7.2% above actual. Today, % error is -5.4% with predicted being again below actual value today.
  • The shape of the actual data curve suggests that while Active Cases may still increase tomorrow, the top of the curve is starting to round.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, (55,299) now above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events two weeks ago.

 

Adding a somewhat different perspective

The above results are of course for events worldwide. The sampling of the following countries may be of use.

 

Of those who have been diagnosed with COVID-19, currently, most at this time are Actively Sick.

 

Confirmed Cases, Activelt Ill - Mar 13, 2020

 

 

 

Of those who have been diagnosed with COVID-19, here are Death rates for the same 17 countries.

 

Confirmed Cases, Deaths - Mar 13, 2020

 

This also shows the variability in Death rates from one country to the next. This explains why one hears various estimated levels. In this particular sample (17 countries) several countries still report no deaths. The mean value here is 1.373 ± 1.722% of diagnosed COVID-19 cases, died.  The figure for the 116 countries of the Johns Hopkins sample today, reported above, was 3.678%. 

 

These are rare events. So the count that we get depends greatly on wich direction we turn our telescope. If we were not looking so closely, these events would likely be missed altogether.

 

 

Of those who have been diagnosed with COVID-19, here are Recovery rates for the same 17 countries.

 

Confirmed Cases, Recovered - Mar 13, 2020

These seem to be variable and frequently rare events as well. What does that mean? The top one of this series of graphs taught that most people with COVID-19, are Actively Sick. Just not better yet. Eventually, they should get better.

 

Minefield

These are anti-personnel and anti-tank land mines.

Antipersonnel and anti-tank mines

 

When walking through a minefield, it is best not to step on one.

 

Slow minefield

 

Minefield warning

 

 

This is a representation of a novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19

(that's, COronaVIrusDisease-identified in 2019).

 

COVID-19 no bgIt is best not to come into pesonal contact with this item.

Doing everything possible to reduce such contact, is currently in the News.

These measures try to convey a method, for walking through the coronavirus minefield.

And of course, as with a land mine, the best way to avoid harmful contact,

is to avoid altogether, the field where the mines (or viruses) are.

Both are invisible, until they explode.

 

What does such an explosion look like in our 17 countries sampled today?

Prevalence of COVID-19 - Cases per Million pop - 13 Mar 2020

 

How does this compare with the risk of fatality by traffic accident?

 

Road Fatalities by Country - March 13

 

Confirmed Cases, Deaths (decimal) - Mar 13, 2020

 

So, is it more likely that you will contract coronavirus in the supermarket, then die in a month, or that you will die in a car accident on the way to and from the supermarket?

 

By comparison, every time you get in your car and drive (in one of these 17 countries) you are walking through a minefield. Especially true today, Friday, the 13th!

 

Boom!

 

But VERY unfortunately, here is a decision taken by Belgian Public Health yesterdy, March 12, that just buried more mines, on that field that everyone in Belgium must still cross.

 

 

 

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13/03/2020
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