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14 March at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - March 14, 2020 at 05h33m22s

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Pop March 14

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - March 14

 

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.001681%, to today's value of 0.001904%. That's a 13.27% increase in prevalence around the world.

The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.

One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 1.90 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Mar 14

 

(click to enlarge)

 

Trends 1

Trends #2

(click to enlarge)

Trends 2

Trends #3

In the last week ...

 

(click to enlarge)

 

Trends 2wk

Trends #4

Today ... (removed 1 column that seemed redundant)

 

(click to enlarge)

 

Trends 3

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 46.873%. Yesterday's value: 19.010%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February, and increasing at a significant rate).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 76.925%. This is the change in "world prevalence." (This is counting the cases, independent of current status of final outcome).
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 9.551% Yesterday this figure was 7.879%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 23.18%, less than yesterday's value of 32,96%.

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases are increasing. At present, 3,950 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and more than the 3,0790 new cases per day, yesterday. Warning! This includes those who have recovered and those who died.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today: 71,694, Yesterday : 68,324 Feb 27 : 32,897)  
  • Death rate worldwide is at 3.735% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%, and yesterday's value of 3.678%. That variable increased 1.55% since yesterday, and 9.56% since Feb 27.
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (68,246 today), increased 23.41% since yesterday, (55,299). This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 68,246 Actively Sick today, that's 46.87% above the value on Feb. 27. 

 

Globally: rate of spread of COVID-19 is increasing. Very slight increase in Death rate.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in Active Cases worldwide - 14 March, 2020

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick is now 49% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 68,256 worldwie. The equation predicts for this day: 74,078.
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 97% of the time) with an error in this estimate of +8.530%. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 82,335 tomorrow.
  • Yesterday, the % error was -7.23%. So predicted was 7.2% above actual. Today, % error is -5.4% with predicted being again below actual value today.
  • The hoped for "rounding of the curve" at the top, hoped for yesterday, is not evident today. Actively Ill cases are simply increasing worldwide.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, (68,256) now above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events two weeks ago.

 

Captain, My Captain!

"Sail On, Sail On !" 

 

Comparing countries

Of those who have been diagnosed with COVID-19, currently, most at this time in the sampled 20 countries, are Actively Sick.

 

Confirmed Cases, Actively Ill - March 14

 

Of those who have been diagnosed with COVID-19, here are Death rates for the same 20 countries.

 

Confirmed Cases, Died - March 14

 

Of those who have been diagnosed with COVID-19, here are Recovery rates for the same 20 countries.

 

Confirmed Cases, Recovered - March 14

Be careful about interpretation: 

This isn't a result supporting the idea of recovery being impossible. It just appears at present as a rare event in most countries, because most Confirmed Cases, are still Actively Sick. Taiwan, who's cases followed soon those in Mainland China, are showing before others here, this trend towards Recovery.

 

 

 

Prevalence (number of cases divided by population) looks like this today:

Prevalence in 20 countries - 14 March, 2020

 

 

 

 

 

Still worried about dying from this stupid virus?

 

Let's put that in perspective ...

 

Road Fatalities by country

 

Decimal cases who died - 14 March, 2020

Notice first, that the scales on the left side of each of the above graphs, are different. Different by a factor of about 10 (1 logarithm for those into math). 

 

So, is it more likely that you will contract coronavirus in the supermarket, then die in a month, or that you will die in a car accident on the way to and from the supermarket?

 

I'll let you work that out. 

But if your going to the store, armed with your mask and gloves, consider walking. Seems particularly good advice if you live in Russia, Taiwan, or the States.

 

Have a safe day.

 

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14/03/2020
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