coronastavelot.com

coronastavelot.com

12 March at CoronaStavelot.com

E:  World COVID-19 data this day

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

 

JH CSSE - 12 March at 06h53m03s

 

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

World Pop - March 12, 2020 at 07h30m06s

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - 12 March, 2020

 

Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results:

The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.001560% to today's value of 0.001653%. The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.

One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 1.65 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Mar 12

 

(click to enlarge)

Trends 1

Trends #2

(click to enlarge)Trends 2

Trends #3

In the last week ...

 

(click to enlarge)

Trends 2wk

 

Trends #4

Today ...

 

(click to enlarge)

 

Trends 3

Results:

  • (red bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, corrected for the world population on the same day, compared with those of February 27, increased by 53,61%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
  • (green bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 35,04%.
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 7.746% Yesterday this figure was 5.485%.
  • (yellow bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 53.666%. (Almost the same as when corrected for world population [red bar]).
  • (purple bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 14.824%. Yesterday, 5.608%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February.).

 

Interpretation:

  • COVID-19 Confirmed Cases continue to increase. At present, 3,150 new cases per day, up from 1,225 new cases per day on Feb 28, and 2,844 new cases per day, yesterday. Warning! included in "confirmed cases" are also those who are cured. Those who died as well. This figure suggests that the virus continues to spread worldwide as suggested on the Johns Hopkins dashboard map above.
    • Those who have Recovered continue to increase in number. (Today: 68,266, Yesterday : 65,776 Feb 27 : 32,897)
  • Deaths rate worldwide is at 3.673% of confirmed cases, compared with that value on February 27 of 3.409%. This rate of change in deaths (7.756%) increased again from that presented yesterday ((5.485%). 
  • The number of people Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide (53,354 today), increased 8.726% since yesterday, (49,072). This figure Feb. 27 was 46,466. With 53,354 Actively Sick today, that's 14,824% above the value on Feb. 27. Currently, above that level 2 weeks ago. This fits with the increasing number of Active Cases as shown below.

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in NUmber of Active Cases - 12 March, 2020

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick is now almost 15% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 53,354. The equation predicts for this day: 49,496.
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.1% of the time) with an error in this estimate of -7.23%. The fit of the curve to actual data continues to improve. 
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 53,081 tomorrow. That would be a slight reduction from values today.
  • Yesterday, the % error was +0.223%. So predicted was 0.2% above actual. Today, % error is -7%, with predicted being below actual value today.

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, (53,354) now above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events two weeks ago.

Will tomorrow begin a downwards turn in the number of Actively Sick worldwide?

 

 

<<<<<<<  Home

 



12/03/2020
0 Poster un commentaire

Inscrivez-vous au blog

Soyez prévenu par email des prochaines mises à jour

Rejoignez les 5 autres membres