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12 April at CoronaStavelot.com

E :  World COVID-19 data this day

(ce même article, mais en français)

 

From Johns Hopkins CSSE

JH CSSE - April 12, 2020 at 05h48m15s

 

185 countries of the world, sampled by Johns Hopkins CSSE this morning.

 

World Population (to allow calculation of world prevalence of COVID-19) :

 

World Population - April 12, 2020 at 07h22m33s

 

Since we began following the march of SARS-CoV-2 around the world, world population has increased by a net of 9,496,962 individuals. That's a net increase of 211,044 individuals per day.

Isn't life funny at times?

 

Raw and Derived Data :

CSI - April 12, 2020

 

 

 Above Raw and Derived data, as PDF

 

Results

  • The CoronaStavelot Index (CSI) increased from yesterday, 0.022226%, to today's value of 0.023260%. That's a 4.652% increase in prevalence around the world. Yesterday: 6.01%. Day before: 7.91%
  • The CSI represents the best estimate of Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 (from Hopkins) on this date, at this time, ... divided by the best estimate of the Total World Population (Census bureau) at the same date and time.
  • One can express it as: "Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, represent 23.3 one-thousandths of 1% of the Total World Population." An increase since yesterday. That's an estimate of prevalence of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the global population.

 

Trends #1 

From Feb 27 to today, Apr 12

Trends 1 - April 12, 2020

Trends #2

Trends 2 - April 12, 2020

Trends #3

In the last week ... 

Trends 2wk - April 12, 2020

Trends #4

Today ...

Trends 3 - April 12, 2020

 

Results:

  • (red bar): the number of people in the world Currently ill with COVID-19, compared with this value on February 27, increased by 2,621%. (More people Actively Sick at present, when compared with 27 February).
  • (green bar): the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 2,064%. This is the change in "world prevalence."
    • (This counts the cases, independent of current status or final outcome. i.e., it includes thosewho have died and recovered from their illness).  It is an answer to the question: "Just how much of this disease have we had since the start?"
  • (blue bar): the Deaths due to COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, increased by 79.6%. Yesterday, 75.5%.
  • (yellow bar): Total Recovery after COVID-19, compared with those of February 27, decreased by -43.19%. Yesterday, -44.61%. Negative values are always a little harder to understand. On February 27, 40% of thise who had become infected with COVID-19, had recovered. Today April 12, 22.75% of those infected have recovered, 22.2%, yesterday.  New cases are still outpacing the recovery.

 

Interpretation:

The trend curves over the past 6 weeks, suggest a very uniform progression. It's not erratic at a world level. Cases are appearing and increasing in countries where the virus had not yet been, so those Actively Sick with COVID-19 continue to increase. 

The shape of the curves suggest that these may eventually begin flattening or rounding at the top. 

 

Change in number of Active Cases

Change in Actively ILL - April 12, 2020

 

Interpretation

  • The number of Actively Sick with COVID-19 continues to increase worldwide.
  • This value of Actively Sick has now increased   (26.2x) to 2,524% above that value on February 27.
  • Number of actual Actively Sick calculated from the Johns Hopkins data this morning, is 1,219,118 worldwide. The equation predicts slightly more for this day: 1,259,779. This is 40,661 ABOVE the actual value. Yesterday: 45,561 ABOVE actual. So the total of actively ill worldwide, continues to increase, but at a rate that is slightly slower than predicted. 
  • This third order polynomial or quadratic relationship defines the data up to today quite well, (on target 99.63% of the time) with an error in this estimate of 3,335%, slightly above actual cases. Yesterday: 4,785% error.
  • It suggests that if nothing changes in the variables that determine those Actively Sick worldwide, this value will be at 1,338,161 tomorrow.

 

As written yesterday ... (repeated because the concept is important)

"If one is thinking that an ever increasing error of estimate by this equation, would indicate "good news," that may not be correct. The thought would be that if actual cases are now decreasing, the equation would incorrectly continue to "shoot up" above reported values. This is not a linear relationship. It is polynomial or quadratic. "So?" Well as cases decrease, (here I'm assuming they will), it should follow around the bend, and stay close to actual numbers, without too great an error in its estimate."

 

(I thought that was again, very well explained).

 

In PlainSpeak ...

At the present time, those Actively Sick with COVID-19 worldwide continue to increase in number, ((1,264,427) now 1,217,961 above the level observed February 27 (46,466) when we began to follow these events 44 days ago. Yesterday, this was 1,172,652 above that previous level used as a baseline reference. But that was yesterday, and yesterday's gone.

 

 

Globally, more people became sick with COVID-19 once again since yesterday. 

 

How about a two for one?

No need to adjust your display. You are not seeing double.

You will have to click on this image to enlarge it. Only one point will be emphasized here.

Look at the equations at the top of each panel. The first factor of the equation multiplies a coefficient by the variable, x³.

x³ = x times x times x.   So results get very big very fast.

Yesterday, the multiplying coefficient was 5.3189x³  and today it's 3.2804x³ 

So, ... the product will be smaller.

It results in fewer new active cases, or at least, a slowing of the rate of increase.

We'll skip the detailed review of the other factors in the equation. 

Now just click on the damn thing and look at it, since I went to all this trouble. Thank you.

 

Side by Side Change in Illness Testerday & Today

 

Prevalence ( how much disease burden by country? ) - sample of 25 countries

All values are current as of this morning, Monday, April 12, 2020 at 8:36AM.

 

Prevalence - April 12, 2020

 

Above prevalences, ranked (25 countries)

Presented today with the number of Days of Infection.

 

Prevalence, ranked - April 12, 2020

 

Sorted by Days of Infection.

Prevalence, ranked by Days of Infection - April 12, 2020

 

Most will recover. If not soon, eventually.

Recovered - April 12, 2020

 

Unfortunately, some are still dying of COVID-19.

Deaths as % Confirmed Cases - April 12, 2020

 

The raw data for Deaths in these 25 countries

USA has now experienced more deaths than Italy. A pretty grim Olympics.

Belgium has now had 3 deaths more (3,346), than the deaths experienced in China (3,343).

 

 

Deaths - Raw data - April 12, 2020

 

Deaths per million inhabitants

Fortunately, a large US population can better absorb these losses. Still just as sad.

 

Deaths per million pop - April 12, 2020

 

Actively Sick with COVID-19 (est. 79.6% mild; 13.6% severe; 4.9% critical), 25 countries 

I notice, of the countries around the one where I live, Switzerland, Germany, Austria: making progress.

Actively ILL - April 12, 2020

 

Time to continue your list of the positives arising from all of this. Here are my entries : 

  1. Less debate and argument; more Solidarity.
  2. Reduction in CO2 and greenhouse gases.
  3. Decide to just get up and go nowhere.
  4. Time for expression: write a poem.
  5. Notice: where I live, the move towards Spring is well under way (green and growing).
  6. Moments of humor, when laughing happens spontaneously. Even when alone.
  7. Flowers from the garden, placed in a vase as a reminder of life, each time I pass. Looking closely.
  8. Greeting the deer who come down in the morning to see how we're doing and where we've been.
  9. An opportunity still exists for taking a nice warm bath. And this day, no rush.
  10. Find even small improvements in a situation, and let them grow inside of yourself, thereby helping them to grow even more outside of yourself. That those actively ill are still increasing in number worldwide is true. That this rate of increase now seems to be diminishing, is also true and to be supported by doing all that we are currently doing (social distancing and hygiene) and not doing (grouping together).
  11. Thankful for all the suppliers who make shopping for food, still possible.
  12. Very grateful to all those who have participated so far in our questionnaire, guiding our work here.
  13. A noticeble quiet in our sourroundings.
  14. Bill collectors seem much less active.
  15. There are moments of mental lucidity. For example: I had already lived through some crappy periods in my life, but I think this one takes the cake.
  16. Thankful to not have to be on the front lines as this approaches. Praying for those who are.
  17. Centering : spending more time doing things that should make a difference. Less counting.
  18. "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
  19. Distance may separate me physically from my family. But we are constantly with each other. That can never be confined.
  20. Grateful for all those who sell and deliver items purchased online. It's still possible. (But wipe the box with Clorox before opening! (Didn't use to do that) ...
  21. An increase in the numbers of moments of absolute silence.
  22. Math can be tedious. A times very revealing. And that's a positive.
  23. Sleeping. Solid as a rock.
  24. There seems to be an increased ability to listen. To others, but also to oneself.
  25. Land mines do not usually go off by themselves. You have to step on them. Stay isolated !
  26. Essential items are recognized more easily.
  27. Imagine if one day somebody appears and says: "You know, all this confinement stuff was not really necessary. All you had to do was ... " Couldn't you just punch a guy like that in the face?
  28. Returning to things ignored for too long (working in the quiet and smells of the greenhouse).

 

This world view in French >>>>>>

 

Results in Belgium this day (also in French) >>>>> 

 

An update on our page about wearing masks >>>>>>

 

 

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12/04/2020
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